One of China’s three leading airline groups has expressed interest in taking over Etihad Airways’ minority stake in Air Serbia, according to the Serbian daily “Danas”. The Chinese government has informed its Serbian counterpart that a “Chinese state-owned company is prepared to take over a 49% stake in another troubled Serbian company”. A source close to the government told the newspaper, “It would suit the Serbian government for a large Chinese carrier to become a part-owner in Air Serbia and take over Etihad’s stake. In that sense, the government is prepared to approve the proposal. However, there is concern that Brussels would disapprove”.
China has a substantial and contentious presence in Europe. Last year, the European Parliament adopted new regulations establishing a framework for screening foreign direct investments into the EU, which is primarily aimed at China. In essence, the new framework allows the EU to screen purchases by foreign companies that target Europe’s strategic assets, including aviation. Even non-EU states, such as Serbia, that aspire to join the bloc, are expected to comply. As a result, according to “Danas”, the Serbian government is yet to respond to the Chinese offer and for that reason has not made the information public. The three largest airlines in China, all of which are state owned, are Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines.
Last week, Etihad Airways indefinitely terminated flights between Abu Dhabi and Belgrade and will seemingly end its codeshare partnership with Air Serbia next year, indicating its part-ownership of the company will also come to a close. The Serbian government has indicated Etihad may exit from its part-ownership of Air Serbia. In October, it adopted a decree which enables it to recapitalise Air Serbia. Through recapitalisation, the state can increase its share in the company, which it can later sell. The Serbian President hinted over the summer that if Etihad were to fully or partially exit the airline, another strategic partner could be brought in. “We might introduce some other strategic partners, but we will continue to hold a majority stake. Air Serbia will be our flag carrier and it will be stronger than it is today”, he said.
This could work
ReplyDeleteBetter give it to a European company. Serbia is already the entry-level of China to the continent.
ReplyDeleteNo European company is in a position to take over anything at the moment.
DeleteYes, they should find someone from the EU like the turnaround experts 4K Invest...
DeleteAnon 09:09
DeleteHahahahah
It should be Hainan, they are a very well run company and already fly to BEG.
DeleteThey don't fly to Belgrade and they are not a state owned company so...
DeleteI don't get how they should find someone from the EU. As if EU companies, especially in aviation sector, are lining up to buy other airlines which are in the same sauce as they are, or even worse.
DeleteActually the HNA group (owners of Hainan) was insolvent, and has been completely bailed out by the Chinese government since they were going to declare bankruptcy, covid being the final straw.
Delete@Anon 09:17: Hainan well-run? HNA Group has been in extremely serious financial trouble well before this pandemic.
DeleteHe was obviously being sarcastic, trying to counter anon 09.09s comment
DeleteMaybe this is why Vucic was announcing flights to China a few months ago.
ReplyDeleteAnd learn chinese...
DeleteThis is big news. Some might think JU would be better off alone, but I disagree. A strategic partner is needed. Chinese are not the best employers, but they have the money, so I think this is not a terrible idea.
ReplyDeleteYM & OU are trying to find partners for a decade, yet JU managed to find 2 in seven years?
Ona narodna kaze "prvo skoci pa kazi hop" ...nista ovde nije sigurno jos tako da JU managed to find 2 is too early to say.
Deletewell the ones that looked at YM and OU are not as profitable and have such good business capabilites as Etihad has. Etihad also bought Air Berlin, Alitalia and JetAirways.
DeleteWell, say what you will about Etihad but compare Air Serbia/Jat in 2012 and 2019/2020 and you will see a difference. Compare Montenegro Airlines/Croatia Airlines in 2012 and 2019/2020 and I see absolutely no difference.
DeleteI would day that YM and OU are worse now than in 2012
DeleteThese are good news. It can make Air Serbia only stronger!
ReplyDeletesorry but if Etihad couldnt ...
DeleteHave the Chinese ever made an airline investment in Europe that actually stuck?
ReplyDeleteask Maribor
DeleteOh yes, the famous Maribor Airlines. The heck.
DeleteLet's hope it's not a repeat of Maribor Airport/VLM Airlines...
ReplyDeleteI think this would be on a higher level than shady investors.
DeleteIt surely can't be compared to Maribor Airport
Delete"One of China’s three leading airline groups "
DeleteMark my words ..... it will not be the same like MBX , since the scale will obviously be much larger .... ;p
DeleteThis would be a good solution. Let's hope politics does not come in the way.
ReplyDeleteIt IS a political solution. Air Serbia is not the sort of company that investors would see as having a bright and prosperous future, in fact very few airlines in the world would right now.
DeleteEntering EY in JU was also the political decision but it very much improved Jat's condition at that time.
DeleteSo, being political decision or not is irrelevant as long as it will help national carrier of Serbia to spread its wings wider and fly further.
Yes, but at what cost? What would the terms of the deal be - will the Chinese be at the controls of Serbia's development in various sectors, all so the national airline can be saved? As mentioned, there is no real reason why any shrewd investor would sink money in a marginal (at best!) airline business unless there were some pretty big strings attached.
DeleteNobody else was interested (including "clean" western investors) for these sectors so they were actually given to Chinese on the silver plate.
DeleteVoters decided on the elections they want this Government to lead them further and this Governemnt decided to save jobs by giving these companies to Chinese investors.
Big strings were also pulled in case of EY and it finished on the way it did. Serbia paid a lot but got much better airline than Jat Airways was. No big conspiracy theory.
"Let's hope politics does not come in the way." What else could it be? Every YU airline is deep into politics
DeleteMaybe the Chinese are thinking Serbia will join the EU at one point and then JU can start purchasing EU airlines - after all, Serbia (at this point an EU country) will have majority ownership of JU.
DeleteSay this happens, what could we expect of Air Serbia to become? More regional expansion to feed flights from China? Ordering Chinese aircraft???
ReplyDeleteEven Chinese airlines do not operate Chinese planes. Don't be silly. If Air Serbia did not order SSJ100 (and we heard from some so called experts owning their blog "it is done deal") from Russia despite excellent political relations I see no reason any Chinese plane to be purchased.
DeletePerhaps they would revamp the boutique airline model ;)
DeleteMy guess is that the Chinese will provide the funds needed to keep JU afloat. It will be up to Belgrade to make the best use of them and to consolidate their operations. I see flights between Belgrade and China happening and probably being subsidized.
DeleteThat could all happen, but what's in it for the Chinese in terms of return on investment?
DeleteMore construction contracts? I think it was last month they were awarded to build a highway from Ruma to Novi Sad through the Fruska Gora mountain. There is also the bridge close to Vinca which will be part of the Belgrade ring and from it there is a plan to build a 'fast road' to Zrenjanin and then from Zrenjanin to Novi Sad.
DeleteChinese firms are not the best employers. Won't be good for employees.
ReplyDeleteBetter than not having a job at all.
DeleteComparing to Koreans they are great
DeleteAnd Serbia sure has experience with Koreans and that's a hard pass = can't get any worse, literally.
DeleteThis is no reason to celebrate, no Chinese carrier has ever invested wisely in a European airline. The only reason this will happen will be as part of a highly political investment with a number of key trade-offs, the Air Serbia "investment" will probably only be a part of the overall deal - usually these involve power stations, airports, highways, mining and agriculture. You only need to look to Africa to why China would be interested in this deal.
ReplyDeleteIn which European airline did they invest?
DeleteIt has been proven over and over again that Chinese investment in Europe have little in common with the ones they have in Africa. Back in 2007 when Serbia opened its doors to China, Beijing used that opportunity to show Europe what a reliable partner they can be and that those horror stories from Africa no longer apply. Since 2007 Chinese economic ties with Europe have only grown.
DeleteVLM? It's 2020, they should be operating A380s out of Maribor by now or something.
DeleteWe talk here about serious companies. Not VLM
DeleteYes sure Anon 09:16. Just as the EY deal was in fact a hidden gateway to transport the agricultural land from Serbia to UAE in the cargo section of each BEG-AUH flight. Any investment in JU is in fact the first chapter of the countrywide colonization. It has to go through an airline, otherwise the entire colonization plan won't work. Airline is the key component of it. And so all these Arab, Chinese, Russian and other colonizers try to colonize Serbia by using her airline as a Trojan horse. We know this xenophobic, racist lullaby very well.
DeleteRacism is horrible thing to insinuate, and no one is talking about colonisation. Simply that these airline investment deals, particularly in non-profitable airlines, become a façade for other deals, but if you want facts, here is one:
Deletewww.serbianmonitor.com/en/uae-companies-one-of-the-biggest-landowners-in-serbia/
if this is true, my guess will be China Eastern, because of its ties to Sky Team
ReplyDeleteThis would be indeed great for Serbia as China is definitely on the rise as a global super power. The recently signed RCEP agreement will basically obliterate EU and US companies operating in the Asia Pacific region. Even if Australia is protesting (probably backed by Washington, London and Paris) they are not a deciding factor when it comes to establishing this trade bloc. RCEP needs to be ratified by 9 out of 15 countries.
ReplyDeleteFor Serbia, linking JU with an airline from a country that will play a dominant role in such a massive region is a major win.
EU's carrot is no longer that appealing for Serbia. The fact not a single new chapter was opened this year is a good indication of that.
Will be interesting to see what happens and what course Serbia takes but I highly doubt the EU will protest much as it's already in a relatively bad position in Serbia. I read somewhere the other day that most Serbs believe Serbia will never become part of the EU.
Aviation has always been subject to geopolitical shifts and these announcements perfectly fit with what's going on in the world right now.
Personally, as a Serb, I'd rather have a non-European airline invest in JU simply because there won't be much overlap when it comes to business and commercial interests.
+100
Delete+1
DeleteIt is not about EU's carrot, but about a) concessions that China expects in other areas in return for the investment in question, b) keeping by JU of the rights to fly freely to among others EU countries (and this is dependant on JU being Serbian controlled and not for example Chinese controlled).
DeleteReally? Particularly looking back to the year we've all endured, and having watched how human rights in that country are waived aside, even constitutions changed so that the leaders cling on to power indefinitely.
DeleteI'd take an EU investment and its endless bureaucracy over that sort of authoritarianism any day.
Funny, I've noticed European countries have gone well outside of the constitution to introduce movements bans, closures of businesses, entry bans and monitoring of people this year.
DeleteNemjee, may I ask, where does all this knowledge of yours come from? I usually like to read your comments on these pages as they seem to be realistic and lack constant negativity and small mindedness that we often see here.
DeleteThat being said, whether this type of a deal comes with certain political ties or hidden agendas, it may be true. However, these are no random airlines. These are large, government owned companies that have a reputation to uphold. Just my two cents.
Chinese partner would not surely own more than 49%.
DeleteSo, it would be similar as with Etihad and JU will lose no right freely to fly to EU.
Anon 09.56
DeleteI studied political science and work in the pharmaceutical industry so I have to follow what's going on around the world because of my job.
In my opinion, here in the Balkans we tend to look at the small picture ignoring the much larger one. This is exactly the case here. Sure in our little Balkan world this is a huge thing but looking at the bigger picture, this is just one small piece in the much larger puzzle that Beijing has been assembling for the past 40 years. Many don't know that a large number of modern day African politicians and bureaucrats actually studied in China back in the 1980s.
Everything China does is thought through and prepared well in advance. If anyone thinks China is not playing a long-term game in Serbia is wrong. Look at the size of their new cultural center. Look at the choice of their ambassador to Belgrade.
India's external affairs minister published a book and in it he wrote something that's painfully true: ...for two decades, China has been winning without fighting, while the US was fighting without winning.
That's one of the reasons why the West could not counter Chinese influence in Serbia. Their actions here have been planned in advance.
As for human rights, I am sorry but for most western nations Serbia falls in the same category of relevance as Liberia, Lesotho or Uzbekistan. West's actions towards us over the past 30 years are a good indicator of this.
Like I wrote earlier, here the Chinese would only provide the needed capital to keep JU afloat. Also I could see them introduce some of the A320s that were manufactured in China and leased to JU through one of the Chinese leasing companies. I doubt much would change in terms of actual day to day business.
lol
DeleteNemjee +1
DeleteInteresting analysis
DeleteExcellent analysis. I would add that this would increase direct flights between BEG and China - positive affect in tourism and business.
DeleteA320s have been manufactured in China? Since when?
DeleteSince 2008
Deletehttps://www.airbus.com/newsroom/news/en/2018/09/airbus--china-assembly-facility-marks-10-years-of-quality-manufa.html
Didn't know, thanks.
DeleteJust read Silent Invasion: China's Influence in Australia by Clive Hamilton.
DeleteNe, nikako.
ReplyDeleteBolje svesti kompaniju na cetiri uskotrupca i dva turbopropa nego prodavati nas transportni suverenitet Kinezima posle pandemije koju su sami izazvali!
Da li zelite da vam Kinezi placaju jeftino letacko osoblje, inzenjere, da zemaljsko osoblje prima minimalac? Kinez ce vam dati najveci avion da sa njime letite u Njujork i Cikago, ali ce vam posluziti sendvic kakav bi i u zatvoru odbili da jedete. I to bi vam bila hrana za ceo let!
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/brit-tourists-disgust-china-eastern-16535426
Nemojmo to sebi raditi! Bolje i nikakva aviokompanija nego kineska!
А шта тај фамозни Етихад служи на лету који траје 16 сати? Мали оброк дечије величине. Ајде молим те. Исто тако зашто не пише колико је платио карту тај Енглез који је толико огрочен.
DeleteOd sledece godine ce se svi sendvici i u Lufthansi placati na short haul letovima.
DeleteNije poenta u jelu i picu vec u avionima, konekcijama, tacnosti, finansijskoj sigurnosti, clanstvu u alijansama, code-sharovima etc.
I pored toga sto se sada prica o odlasku iz Air Serbije Etihad je jako puno pomogao da se onaj rasplai Jat dovede u red. Obnovljena flota, povracen depozit Airbusu, nove konekcije, bolja usluga i sve ono sto Jat Airways niej mogao sam sa iznajmljenim bugarskim B733.
Vidim da na nekim svojim blogovima tzv. strucnjaci zlurado slave odlazak Etihada. Bas mi je zao sto ce ih ova vest tako jako zaboleti!
Dolazak kineskog investitora moze samo jos vise vinuti Air Serbiju i otvoriti joj nove mogucnosti.
Nadji mi gde sam pomenuo Etihad i gde sam se uopste bavio Etihadom.
DeleteKoliko god da je Englez platio kartu nije uljudno posluziti ga time, posebno u vremenu kad ne mozes sam unositi kuvani obrok u avion. Ako ik se ne isplati, nek jednostavno taj najnizi tarifni razred uklone iz rezervacionih sistema i nek posluze nesto normalno. I nismo spomenuli ekoloske standarde. Kinezi su nas dovoljno zaprljali svojim fabrikama, ne moraju sad jos dodatno da zaprljavaju ovde. Na kraju mi smo Evropljani i treba prestati sa ucenama vanevropskih mocnika. Trebamo se drzati Evrope i njene moci, pa makar samo Lufthansom leteli.
Ja sam pomenuo Etihad iz razloga jer je na njegovo mesto dolazi kineski investitor. Vise nego logicno.
DeleteNije u redu posluziti ga tako, slazem se. Bolje bi bilo da mu nista nisu dali, ali taj isti Englez se ne bi na internetu pohvalio niskom cenom leta na toj relaciji vec bi se u sebi radovao uveravajuci sebe kako je ispao pametan da za male pare leti za Kinu.
To ti je nekako isto kao i utisci o avio kompanijama na raznim internet stranicama. Ljudi ih redje ostavljaju kad je sve u redu sa letom a daleko cesce kad imaju neku zalbu.
I Kinezi lete zapadnim avionima tako da oni zasigurno nece vise uprljati vazduh svojim avionima nego li sto to rade svi ostali avio prevoznici odakle god da dolaze.
Toliko smo Evropljani da su nas ti isti mucki pre 21 godinu bombardovali na nacin da ce sva buduca pokolenja na ovim prostorima zdravljem to placati. Thanks, but no thanks!
Izvini, kad si ti to mogao da uneses KUVANI obrok u avion? Grickalice uvek, pa i sad tokom pandemije - znam, jer sam upravo leteo long haul do SAD.
DeleteNe zaboravimo i da nas ti isti tzv. Evropljani drze podalje od sebe jer je nas virus izgleda gori od njihovog (a oni su nam iz svog skijaskog centra i sa svoje utakmice poslali ovde, hvala im).
DeleteI think this can be the only solution for the government.
ReplyDeleteIf they do this, they should really make the agreement more balanced, where the Chinese would actually have to invest something.
ReplyDeleteGood thing the airport wasn't given to the Chinese, otherwise any deal over the airline with the Chinese would be near impossible.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone know what would happen with our Etihad miles? Would they be transferred to the new group? For example, would Etihad miles be transferred to Sky team if China Eastern invests in Serbia?
ReplyDeleteYour miles will most probably stay with Etihad Guest since it is Etihad Guest miles, not Air Serbia. Air Serbia uses the identical program.
DeleteThis is really pure speculation. Although Air Serbia was (is) member of Etihad Guest, there is quite clear difference between members from Serbia and rest of Etihad Guests. All members from Serbia have Etihad Guest / Air Serbia cobranded cards, AirSerbia newsletter, etc.
DeleteSo, basically nobody knows what will happened, but it is expected that Air Serbia members will carry on their points into new program whatever it will be. Of course, there is a slight chance that there will not be new program, depending of fitire of Air Serbia.
another populist move. They dont seem to work well these days
ReplyDeleteAs said above by other people, no Chinese investment in airlines has worked, in Europe we have a recent example with Aigle Azur, forced them to operate PEK-Paris to bring tourists cheaply to Europe and bankrupted the airline. The Chinese leisure market is huge but it is not making money, otherwise JU would have entered the market already and Hainan wouldn't have left.
ReplyDeleteThe investment will strengthen Chinese presence close to Europe, it will provide job security for a few Air Serbia employees, but nothing different than what EY has provided to JU so far, and therefore in 5 years it will fail, again.
If Vucic wants to secure the airline (and as an enthusiast I fully support), keep the national airline of Serbia and relevance in the region, which can be great as a long term vision, then invest directly the money and wisely.
I really foresee the same fate as with EY, JU is part of a wider political deal, someone is getting money in his pocket for this but certainly not JU employees! For me there is nothing to be excited about if this goes through, I hope Serbia has greater ambition than to become China and Russia vestibule to Europe....
'...and therefore in 5 years it will fail, again.'
DeleteOnly difference is that Air Serbia did not fail. It's the government that's looking at ways to secure the necessary funding without having to invest even more money into the airline. Air Serbia will keep on operating normally and we might get flights to China either on JU or some Chinese airline.
The objective of building a profitable and sustainable airline has failed, JU is not able to repay its debt on its own. Like so many other airlines of course, I don't blame them, but the financial independent objective is not met.
DeleteIf the aim was to establish a strong positioning in the Balkan, then it was successful, but then why changing everything about it?
My view is that no Chinese airline will do better than any middle-eastern airline investing in a project with JU. Either JU gets full founding from Serbia and builds a sustainable strategy around it, or it receives investment from another airline but needs to accept interference from it. And so if the idea is to replace an ex-EY CEO with a chinese CEO, this won't improve anything long term for JU.
Our President has been hinting for a while at a new 'strategic' partner, so this story seems to have a degree of credibility.
ReplyDeleteI find it amusing that some of the biggest enthusiasts for JU potentially moving the focus away from Abu Dhabi to Doha are here today in a stampede to praise connections with the state-owned airline of a country that produces these kinds of headlines about labour slavery:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55319797
But somehow it's all EU's fault. If only they could give us the funds that they do, but shut up (please see page 4 of this report and try not to cry):
https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep26534
All of the above will be part of any potential deal, which is also likely to include a combination of the following:
- investment into JU conditioned on JU purchasing C919 ('strategic' partner investing to buy its own products);
- investment mostly in the form of consultants paid for by JU from the investment fund of the 'strategic' partner;
- all supplies must be in the 'strategic' partner's list of approved supplier (read: other state-owned companies) except where the 'strategic' partner gives explicit exception;
- commitment to closer alignment with 'strategic' goals of the Belt and Road Initiative;
- some utterly unrelated, perhaps irrelevant too, component as part of the deal that provides evidence to the 'strategic' investor that the other side is willing to go 'the extra mile.'
How I wish I was wrong, but I fear I am right.
EU US good China Russia bad
DeleteIn brief, what is there on this page 4?
Delete#fakenews alert. JU won't be purchasing Chinese aircraft, just like it didn't buy Russian planes.
DeleteHas recent financial dispute btw JU and EY solved? Is there any debt or payment obligations to EY?
ReplyDeleteWhat financial dispute? If you are referring to the Etihad Partners loan it has nothing to do with Etihad Airways - the airline. The funding vehicle is called Etihad Partners because it involved all Etihad Partners borrowing money (including Etihad Airways) but it was banks from the UK that provided the loans.
DeleteAnd yes, the loan has been paid.
https://www.exyuaviation.com/2020/09/air-serbia-repays-576-million-etihad.html
Thx, you are right. So, remains that second loan (63 M) to clear all obligations?
DeleteYes
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteJust to point out: clear all obligations to UK banks, not to Etihad as Etihad has nothing to do with the loan.
DeleteThe EU doesnt do anything good for the Balkans in the last 20 years but yet they whine when somebody like China/RUS/TR/Gulf does something
ReplyDeletehaving said that i dont welcome this move (JU being sold to the Chinese) but they (EU) should get their act together finally
It just pours billions in the region through pre-accession funds. It is the sole reason most countries in the region are surviving financially.
Delete"The EU doesnt do anything good for the Balkans in the last 20 years"
DeleteRight. Slovenia, Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria never got even a single cent from the EU in the last 20 years. Not to mention the remaining 4 countries in the process of joining.
yet politically they have made all the wrong decissions since the 90ies (for the non-EU countries of the so called Western Balkans)
DeleteSerbia does not need to comply to anything, we are not going to be part of EU anyway.
ReplyDeleteSure, say that to the government which gets 700 million in preacsession funds each year and ask them what they would do without it.
DeleteI hate when people use facts in a discussion.
DeleteHmm interesting how people always conveniently ignore how many billions (Dinars) EU companies get in subsidies from the Serbian government. FIAT is a good starting point.
DeleteNot only EU companies, but also Russian and American, Asian ...
DeleteWell, if the EU and momma Lufti have anything against, they are free to invest like half a billion euros in JU, donate some nice neos and so on. Otherwise tough luck.
ReplyDeleteSorry, and who is the alternative investor "to invest like half a billion euros in JU, donate some nice neos and so on"?
DeleteJust asking, because I might have an offer for this investor as well:)
They are strange people, those Chinese.
ReplyDeleteWhen they decide to do something, no one and nothing can stop them.
Slowly and patiently, for years, centuries, but they will complete it.
If they have decided to rebuild the Silk Road, despite all the obstacles from the strongest countries, they will do so.
If they have decided to become the number one world power, they will become one.
Just like they built the Great Wall of China.
Just like the US after WW2.
DeleteAir Serbia news got front page attention at airliners.net
ReplyDeletePonovo bi nam uveli vize za EU, kao onomad kada se Rasim igrao sa Irancima, pa posle polivao pepelom...
ReplyDeleteAir Serbia allowing China investment is not smart. But if that's the only way to beat Lufthansa and Wizz in Belgrade, than be it. Compared to those two even Red China seems like a lesser evil for Serbian aviation.
ReplyDeleteChinese investment in AS will mean a lifeline. Who else has shown interest in AS recently, nobody. Imagine AS with two weekly to PEK & SAN. The entire Balkans would fly to China via BEG. That's good business.
DeleteNo they wont, they will fly with Turkish, better product (hard and soft), better luggage policy, more value of miles, a lot more of frequencies, etc...
DeleteHahaha. Have you flown with TK lately? You believe their product will be back to pre-pandemic level right after the pandemic stops? lol.
DeleteThey will fly with AS if the price is better than TK. tačka, točka, period.
Delete