The Serbian President, Aleksandar Vučić, has held talks with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, during which he expressed the need for nonstop flights between Belgrade and China to be established. Mr Vučić said a service between the Serbian capital and either Shanghai, Beijing or Guangzhou is necessary due to strong demand and asked China’s leader to look into the matter. “President Xi said he is taking considerable notice of the request. When he says something like that, you can expect for his words to be put into action within a short period of time”, Mr Vućić said. He added the flights could be operated by either Air Serbia or a Chinese carrier.
Belgrade Airport’s top unserved route in both 2019 and 2020 based on OAG data was Shanghai, followed by Beijing. A total of 145.248 passengers travelled between the two countries in 2019 (excluding Hong Kong and Taiwan). Of those, 62.518 flew to or from Shanghai, or around 43% of all China travellers. It was followed by Beijing with 52.123 passengers and Guangzhou with 14.087 travellers. Belgrade was the eleventh busiest unserved route from Shanghai and the seventh busiest European market without flights to China's largest city. Most of the traffic flow between China and Serbia over the past few years has originated from Shanghai. In 2019, Moscow Sheremetyevo was the top connecting airport for travellers between Serbia and China with 69.456 opting to transfer via the Russian capital. It was followed by Doha and Abu Dhabi.
Top five busiest China - Serbia citypairs in 2019
The Serbian capital was briefly served by Hainan Airlines from Beijing in 2017 with a stop in Prague, however, flights were suspended a year later due to low demand. In May of last year, Mr Vučić, noted, “Serbia is very popular in China due to its friendly relations and we are considering for Air Serbia to launch flights to the country in the coming period, with assistance from China. We are in discussions”. Travel between Serbia and China plummeted in 2020 due to the global health emergency. Travel in and out of the Asian country remains tightly regulated due to Covid-19.
That's quite a lot of passengers from/to Shanghai. The route could work with very good loads twice per week year round.
ReplyDeleteTime for Air Serbia to launch Shanghai.
ReplyDeleteI'm guessing the president is after subsidies from China? Why would he ask for Xi to help Air Serbia establish the flights?
ReplyDeleteOr regulatory approval China is notorious for it and how long it takes.
DeleteHe didn't say that they to help JU but rather to help in setting up non stop flights operated by whoever.
DeleteAsí usual, governments and politics are involved. Don't forget that ASL is heavily backed by the local government.
DeleteAs are many other airlines in Europe receiving billions from their governments in the last year.
DeleteEverything in China is tied to the government. After all EU officials are regularly going there to secure better deals for their companies, even Merkel.
DeleteThis is true. Even Croatian Prime Minister said last year that for flights to China to happen they need to be agreed on political level.
DeleteChina knows the value of its domestic market and they are aware of how much money there is to be made there. Their domestic market was turned into an exclusive club and Xi is the one holding all the tickets.
DeleteWould be nice to see a Chinese airline back in Belgrade.
ReplyDeleteHonestly, I hope JU stays away from China. I'd rather get a Chinese carrier to launch flights so that we have access to their domestic and Asian network.
ReplyDeleteLook at JU's JFK flights, they have interline agreements with AA and B6 but connections are more than limited and are extremely expensive.
I think this time around it will happen because it moved all the way up to the highest level in China.
+1
DeleteShanghai is much more logical route to BEG than PEK.
ReplyDeleteIt could be operated as triangle flights BEG-PVG-PEK-BEG.
Delete^ that would be highly uncompetitive.
DeleteAeroflot was winning big time with China transfers.
ReplyDeleteNo wonder they operated 3 daily flights to BEG.
DeleteFunny thing is though that SU doesn't have a wide network in China. I think both PEK and SHA are daily on the B77W. I guess they have a good sales team.
DeleteAnd very good fares too :) But I think primarily they work with tour agents that sell these tickets to Chinese people living in Serbia so they do well.
DeleteSU had up to 5 daily BEG-SVO if you count the codeshare they have with JU.
DeleteShanghai has potential. Once corona is over it can be used by business people, expats and tourists. I'm also sure there would cargo traffic on this route.
ReplyDelete"The Serbian capital was briefly served by Hainan Airlines from Beijing in 2017 with a stop in Prague, however, flights were suspended a year later due to low demand."
ReplyDeleteFinally the truth is admitted, albeit late. I remember the hysteria here when those flights were suspended, many claimed that the flights were full, doing very well but Hainan Airlines needed restructuring bla bla...
Not true. Many said from the start the flights were not competitive as it required a stop in Prague and backtracking on the way back. It was easier and cheaper to fly Qatar or Etihad with single short stop in Doha or Abu Dhabi.
DeleteIt was also shorter to fly with any other Gulf airlines (or Aeroflot for that matter) than with Hainan.
DeleteSRB should target getting flights to Shanghai. Shanghai not only offers excellent transfer opportunities to other important Chinese domestic destinations
ReplyDeleteCrazy that there are no flights between Belgrade and Shanghai.
ReplyDeleteOnce market settles, I have a feeling JU will be heading to China.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the data.
ReplyDeleteLooking at those stats, there is plenty of demand to sustain a direct flight to China once things go back to normal. A direct flight would also no doubt stimulate further demand plus additional transfer passengers - it will be interesting to see whether it will be Air Serbia or a Chinese airline that ultimately gets through the door first.
ReplyDeleteExactly. And the numbers in the article are just O&D. I imagine the transfer potential would be significant.
DeleteI reckon it will be a Chinese carrier. The language thing is huge with Chinese passengers. If it was viable for Air Serbia they would establish flights without asking for XJP's help.
DeleteI think these flights will happen because BEG has recovered quite nicely after covid. Just yesterday someone wrote that LH boosted FRA to BEG to all A321 in July and even flights from MUC are getting a mix of A319 and A320 this week. These are just on top of all other increases that were already announced.
ReplyDeleteThis will all give confidence to other players like Air Canada or any of the Chinese carriers. I think they will also discuss the return of Chinese tourists this winter.
On paper it looks like a good opportunity for JU, however, I am not sure are Chinese willing to fly with foreign carriers or they prefer to fly with local carriers where staff can speak Chinese? Any thoughts?
ReplyDeleteChinese tourists will fly on whoever offers them the cheapest ticket. There are a lot of foreign carriers in China meaning they don't care anymore who they fly with. Just look at AY's network.
DeleteWell, they flew a lot with Aeroflot. But there certainly is a problem with communicating to the cabin crew, it is quite of a chaos for many of them to order i. e. fish over chiken in a non-Chinese speaking aircraft (my impression is that virtualy no Chinese speaks English - they dont understand "Coca-cola" in a 5 star hotel in Beijing).
DeleteOn my QR flight a month ago whole plane was with Chinese people. Like someone mentioned communication was very difficult (starting from boarding at the airport). But the most amusing thing was that no one could order breakfast when crew was asking what choice they wanted. Then Serbian crew member asked in Serbian and they all ordered without a problem :D they were all obviously local Chinese. Other crew members were calling up the Serbian one to ask the Chinese passengers in Serbian what they wanted.
DeleteYupp, that`s what it`s like. It is somewhat funny that "Ladies and gentleman" in Mandarin sounds pretty much like in English, though:)
Delete(Nǚshìmen, xiānshēngmen)
It will happen sooner or later.
ReplyDeleteSo what Chinese airline would make most sense on flights to Belgrade?
ReplyDeleteChina Eastern?
DeleteAir China, Hainan Airlines and China Eastern Airlines were in talks over Belgrade route in 2017. In the end Hainan agreed on the terms and started flights.
DeleteFinally, this is really good news. I hope a Chinese airline launched Beijing flights so that we can get access to their domestic and international networks.
ReplyDeleteShanghai would be more useful.
DeleteThere is no way JU can make JFK and China with one plane. This is basically a confirmation that a second A330 is coming.
ReplyDeleteWith second A330 could we maybe see them fly two times to Shanghai and maybe two weekly to Chicago/Toronto? Or can they make it three times to both destinations?
DeleteIt very much depends on how they plan things out.
DeleteIf these flights start, they won't start until this corona crisis is over.
ReplyDeleteI could see these happen next summer.
DeleteCorona may not be over in years but life will start returning to normal either way.
DeleteWhat matters is that there is actual promotion and PR being done even before flights are launched. Even if non-stop flights are introduced expect many to reach BEG and Serbia through one of the global hubs.
ReplyDeleteShanghai and Beijing I get, but how come this demand from Guangzhou?
ReplyDeleteGuangzhou is part of the most-populous built-up metropolitan area in mainland China and the largest port city in the world.
DeleteGuangzhou is the native name of Canton which is the capital of the Cantonese .
DeleteAlso Guangzhou and Hongkong are practically one big city connected via Shenzhen .
Out of curiosity: how many Chinese are currently working on the Chinese contracts for construction of roads and rail in Serbia?
ReplyDeleteOnce direct flights are established we will see a significant increase in trade/investment. Airline travel is not only about tourism, it's also about business.
ReplyDeleteWhen I see these numbers I would lease not one but another two A330 and deploy them:
ReplyDeleteBEG - PEK - BEG 2x p/w
BEG - PVG - BEG 2x p/w
BEG - CAN - BEG 1x p/w
BEG - YYZ - BEG 2x p/w
BEG - ORD - BEG 2x p/w
BEG - MIA - BEG 1x p/w
BEG - LAX - BEG 1x p/w
BEG - SIN - BEG 1x p/w
I know LAX might be expensive but this is for experimenting purposes and also Southeast Europe deserves connection with the USA West Coast.
SIN is also for testing purposes and what might be in the future full scale Kangaroo route, as well.
S obzirom da JU cilja transferne putnike na long haul linijama mislim da ni jedna ruta sa 1X nedeljno ne bi uspela.
DeleteThis is how "mali djokica" envisions aviation industry and route planning.
DeleteYYZ-4X
DeleteORD-3X
PEK-2X
PVG-2X
JFK-7X
@Prepelica This is very unprofessional answer. Usually style of persons with poor communication skills.
DeleteIf you recall when Etihad bought JAT several years ago, after rebranding to AirSerbia they restarted bunch of destinations to test demand. Now is the time for long haul sector to do the same.
And yes, we do recall how that all went. Air Serbia is having hard time expanding shorthaul fleet, not to mention adding another widebody airplane. Their regional network is still crippled, and almost non-existant on certain dates. But no, you would now invest in two more widebody planes to fly to places where there's not enough year round demand and having 1x weekly flight would mean that you would have to focus on p2p travellers, plus it would be next to impossible to start this flights during the summer season, so you would actually do that in offseason. Should we even mention there's no existing agreements with relevant regulators and/or potential interline agreements on end points? Yes, I am unprofessional and may have poor communication skills, but your comment was by all means either trolling or as I said "mali djokica" wishful thinking.
Delete@ Uros
DeleteThis is wrong on soo many levels. Where to begin.
A typical A330 crew compliment is 12, plus minus flight time where extra flight deck crew is needed and airline requirements. Keeping crew on 1 week layovers is an extremely inefficient way to use crew. 1-2 days off before and after rotations (depending on distance/time zone changes) means that for almost half the month the crew is operating 1 rotation.
1 per week on a market, especially long haul, means youre practically non existant. Youre pretty much going after low yield traffic as pax like options and frequencies, especially the ones you want upfront in business class. And there are lots of other options (via SVO, IST, CDG, AMS, FCO, VIE, FRA, MUC, DOH, DXB...).
YYZ is the only destination in that list that can be back in BEG in less than 24 hours, in time for full usage where the flight connects with other JU flights.
As for the Kangaroo route, no chance that will ever come back. The only European airline doing that is BA, and that is for prestige and nothing more. An Australian rotation blocks the aircraft for 2 1/2 days. There is a reason why other European carriers stopped flying the Kangaroo route.
Just a short summary as to why that idea is really stupid...to put it lightly.
@Prepelica and @JATBEGMEL
Delete+1000
@Uros
In addition to what others say, Etihad never bought JAT. It was Jat Airways. And the difference between the two is like between day and night. Please learn something about things you comment.
Very good news. My guess is it will be Air China in the end.
ReplyDeleteLet it be China Southern, with 3 times per week to Beijing and 2 times per week to Guangzhou to ensure easy coverege form east and south. They have the newest planes and often ridiculous discounts
ReplyDeleteHopefully no Air Serbia :D
ReplyDeleteHopefully yes Air Serbia :D
DeleteI think 3 times per week BEG-PVG nonstop on Air Serbia with good connections to Sarajevo, Skopje, Podgorica could work. The longer they wait to introduce these flights, the more difficult it will be.
ReplyDeleteBingo. Air Serbia could actually do well here with good regional connections. Linking this route with Sarajevo and Montenegro would also be good since Chinese don't need visas for Bosnia and get expedited visas for Montenegro.
DeleteYes but as someone who lives in Belgrade and works with Chinese it is more important for me to get access to the Chinese domestic market than it is for JU to get low yielding transfers from the region. Either JU with an extensive and affordable codeshare or let some Chinese carrier come.
DeleteWe all remember JU and CA selling PEK via VIE for €1.200.
But then we get a problem that we do not have enough "small birds" to feed "big birds", a.k.a regional network of JU cannot sustain feeding JKF and YYZ and Beijing/Shanghai which means they need to send A319 to region instead ATRs and they do not have them, which means it is not only "hey, lets take another A330!" It is also "hey, now we also need more A319s".
DeleteI think thats the catch.
JU knows that China and Canada would work, but if you have one ATR and you have to fly following groups - P2P+EU transfers+Russian transfers+JFK transfers+Canada/China transfers they have only three options -
1. Lease more ATRs and send two at the same time
2. Lease more A319s and send one A319 instead of ATR
3. Do nothing
I think currently they are in the option 3. Not because they want to, but because they do not have $$$ to expand more.
They do charters. And region. And JFK. And Russia. And EU. For now is good.
For near future (22/23) they need at least 5 additional ATRs and 5 additional A319 just to justify 2 new intercontinental routes.
@ 15,16
DeleteOn airliners.net there are regular updates on lease prices on the market. Leasing an ATR currently is almost the same price as an A319, depending on its age.
A couple of JU regional destinations could sustain an A319, that is be upgraded from an ATR. Midday TIA, SJJ and SKP could be candidates for an A319 for example.
If JU changed its pricing policy on their regional network they would have more O&D pax further justifying the A319.
In turn, those additional A319's would be used for restoring frequencies on their Euro-Med network, further expansion, while freed capacity with the ATR could go for further regional expansion (OMO, OHD).
This would be sufficient in the short term to feed an additional long haul route in my opinion. Nothing overally drastic. Naturally an airline will grow from there.
I wouldn't agree that JU is doing nothing, they have been rebuilding their network, while slightly downsizing the fleet to conserve cash (reduce further damage to their finances), while finding a couple of opportunities for network growth. Lets wait and see what January brings.
There are rumors JU is getting a second A330 very soon. So this is a possible route.
ReplyDeleteThere have been such rumours for years but still nothing.
DeleteGood news to have more opportunities from Belgrade.
ReplyDeleteTeaser :D
ReplyDelete1 widebody is not going to cut it. 😂
ReplyDeleteWait till that bird has a maintenance issue .. will be a complete meltdown.
I hope they get more aircraft and are able to start up more routes like Toronto, China, Singapore, and Australia at some point
Air Serbia has been operating with 1 widebody without any major issue for over 5 years now :)
Delete@ John
DeleteJU has been operating JFK on 1 A330 the past 5 years. They haven't had any major issues doing so.
Other than BA, who operates SYD out of prestige, which other European carrier flies to Australia? There is a reason why this is. Google it.
I think that the route has potential: chinese workers and business people going to Serbia and the region, chinese tourists visiting Serbia as well as connecting with ASL to the region, serbian tourists going to China, Hong Kong etc. and last but not least I guess there will be some connecting traffic to Australia via China
ReplyDeleteJU should get second A330, launch two weekly to PVG and then add three weekly to Toronto. In winter operate both flights two times per week.
ReplyDelete+1
DeleteWill be interesting to see which airline it is. I guess it's a guessing game like last time around when it turned out to be Hainan. The good news is flights will start.
ReplyDeleteDo you have an approximate date when flights will start?
DeleteTo all people commenting:
ReplyDeleteChina is like a continent. To a large extent the airports mentioned in the article are not final destinations, but simply hubs used by pax flying from BEG/from regional destinations via BEG and vice versa.
SVG is named as having most pax, because it is the hub of two SkyTeam carriers: China Eastern and China Southern. I expect a lot of pax flew to SVG from BEG on Aeroflot, another Skyteam carrier. None of these Chinese airlines had at that time a hub in Beijing.
Beijng and Chengdu are hubs of Air China.
Guangzhou is a hub for China South Airlines and Hainan.
This is like flying from NYE to Europe. On many occasions whether you fly to AMS or to FRA depends not on your ultimate destinations, but on your choice of a carrier.
Isn't it better to have a Chinese operating BEG-SHA and then a code share agreement with them to feed them from regional nodes?
ReplyDeleteAir Serbia will need a second aircraft for Toronto/Chicago and a third one for Shanghai/Beijing .
ReplyDeleteAll these four destinations could be served three times a week year round .
But an expansion of the regional fleet will be needed too .
Mostly additional Atrs but also A320 for the heavily demanded routes and charters .
THANK YOU FOR BEAUTIFUL NEWS.
ReplyDeleteChinese passengers prefer Chinese carriers. Also, when purchasing tickets for their employees, Chinese companies tend to stick to homeland carriers.
ReplyDeleteA colleague of mine was perfectly okay to modify her plans and fly Tibet Airlines from Helsinki to Jinan back in 2019 as it was offered as a preferred option by the corporate travel office, despite the fact that the point of origin was Vienna and the final destination had nothing to do with Jinan, China. Air China from Frankfurt was offered as a second option. Noone even mentioned the possiblity of flying Austrian or any other European or Gulf carriers.
Post-covid, she came to Europe on one weekly China Southern CZ307 from Guangzhou to Amsterdam and made long layovers on both sides of longhaul flight.
We want China flights by either side - sounds like desperation to me.
ReplyDeleteWhy wouldn't we want it?
DeleteJU must get additional aircrafts ASAP as their fleet is stretched to its maximum currently.
ReplyDeleteAny additional route, and especially with additional A330 would just collapse them.
It is quite easy - with their current fleet of 17 aircrafts they maintain charters+region+EU+Russia.
As I said, stretched to its maximum.
Currently they have "free times" on Tuesdays and Thursdays, but basically all other times it is back-to-back all day all night.
So, what they need is additional A319s, restoring of proposed routes from "good ol' times" (Florence, Madrid, Helsinki), add more regional flights (Mostar, Ohrid, Kukes, Cluj, Varna, Cisinau), add Caucasus region (Baku, Yerevan, Tbilisi) and back-to-back Toronto-Shanghai (Toronto-BEG-Shanghai-BEG-Toronto-BEG...) or Chicago-Shanghai or whatever city can work.
JFK performs well, maybe introduce more flights with that additional A330.
I mean, here we are all experts :)
And we would all love to have JU with 08:00 departures to JFK, Toronto, Chicago, Washington and LAX at the same time and on the way back flights to Beijing, Singapore, Sydney, Shanghai and Tokyo.
But we have to be realistic - it will not happen in next few years.
In ideal world 5 A330 are needed to fulfil "promises" to Vinci.
But in reality if we get additionak A330 in 2022 it will be huge success
Air Serbia has a huge potential here, because it also serves some of the other top unserved European routes from Shanghai, and little bit advertising in China, and there you go: Shangai-BEG-Shanghai could work.
ReplyDeleteDoes Air China fly from Shanghai to European cities?
ReplyDeleteBefore Covid, yes
DeleteYes they flew to Barcelona, Frankfurt, Milan, Munich and Paris.
DeleteCome on Belgrade, we can do it!
ReplyDeleteMany outlets, including exyuaviation, reported Serbian side expressed the need for nonstop flights. This site has been reliable and trusted so I was surprised to see a journalist publish an article in Danas (https://www.danas.rs/dijalog/licni-stavovi/brateee-presedan-bez-presedanja/) claiming two leaders agreed to launch direct service between two countries in the near future.
ReplyDeleteTwo issues are of main concern: direct vs nonstop flight and expressing the need vs agreeing to launch. Are we witnessing complete lack of understanding the matter or simply, to put it mildly, crossing the line on fact-based publishing?
Danas. lol. The 101 guide on how to write cynically and overemphasising trivia. Anything written there should be taken with a big pinch of salt.
DeleteDanas has higher quality journalism than most media in Serbia. What is your number one mainstream source for information? Particularly aviation news? I hope not pink and informer.
DeleteWell I compare it with this article on exyu that shows me demand figures, which airline carries most of these passengers, evolution of the route and most importantly does not advocate either for or against the flights and let's me make up my own mind.
DeleteEven the best news organizations in the world make mistakes. Difference is, when they publish wrong information they issue a correction or retraction, unlike Danas. That's how you can tell reliable, professional reporting from whatever that article was.
DeleteYou guys are ridiculousl - if it didn’t work for Hainan in ‘17 when all was gooing well there is no chance it will work now!
DeleteTransfers are transfers - only fraction of them are willing to pay the premium of direct flights