Ryanair Group’s CEO, Michael O’Leary, will host a press conference in Zagreb next Tuesday afternoon where he is expected to announce the company’s latest growth plans for the Croatian capital. Its group member, Lauda Europe, currently has two aircraft based in the city, with a third to be stationed in December, when an additional eight new destinations are to be launched. As reported last week, Mr O’Leary is expected to make public a new set of route launches for next year, as the airline aims to have up to forty destinations from its Zagreb base. The carrier will boast 24 points in Europe from the Croatian capital by the end of the year, based on its existing plans.
The budget airline has already started modifying its planned operations for next summer season, which begins in late March 2022. It plans to introduce an additional weekly flight to Charleroi and Weeze, totalling five and three weekly rotations respectively. The carrier previously noted, "Ryanair is quite an opportunistic company and there are a lot of places we don't fly to and people ask why. We have many places where we could place our capacities and where there is a market gap for us, and one of them was Zagreb. What you have here is that an airport needs passengers and they put an incentive in. The only way they are going to get a return on that is not by putting up prices but by generating more passengers to spread it across their fixed costs. So, the more passengers they get, the more efficient they get and the more revenue streams they get. It’s the way everything works. Constraining that is the wrong way to do it”.
Speaking at the airline’s annual general meeting yesterday, Mr O’Leary said, “Ryanair has opened ten new bases across Europe this year as we work with airport partners to help them recover traffic and jobs post Covid, and take up slot opportunities that are being vacated by competitor airlines who have collapsed or significantly reduced their fleet sizes”. He added, “Only Ryanair has used this crisis to place significantly increased aircraft orders, to expand our airport partnerships, and to secure lower operating costs so that we can pass on even lower fares to our guests, so that together with our airport partners, we can recover strongly from the Covid pandemic and deliver higher than expected growth in both traffic and jobs over the next five years. Ryanair is accelerating its post-Covid growth, as opportunities open up at primary and secondary airports all over Europe, particularly where legacy carriers have failed or reduced fleet sizes as a result of Covid and state aid".
RIP Croatia Airlines.
ReplyDeleteRIP indeed. I said the other day that their main focus at the moment should not be fleet renewal but rather network development. By the time they get around doing anything Ryanair will have at least 40 routes and they won't be able to open any new destination successfully.
DeleteAnon@9.10 - you are absolutely right. Their focus has been all wrong - as has whatever their CONsultants BCG have been advising. They talked about a 3 year time horizon - while the absolute pressing response is needed HERE AND NOW - they may not be around this time next year, let alone in 3 yrs time. While they faff around with talks about this or that, Ryanair are basing aircraft, developing routes and the big chief is coming to make further announcements.
DeleteIf they were not able to make any significant shifts/developments to their business when they had little to no competitive threat, they ain't gonna do it now when someone has their foot pressed hard on their throat.
The fact that they have been focused on long term fleet considerations instead of getting in front of Ryanair by launching routes, only goes to show how disconnected from reality they are, as is their Supervisory Board and the Minister who oversees OU.
There really is nothing more to say than what hasn't already been said by so many people on this blog.
Definitely a gold medal for inertia and we may as well start with writing their obituary.....
The Govt should do a deal with them similar to what the Maltese Govt did (as they launched Malta Air) and start "Air Croatia" .... this is the only way to salvage something from this train crash waiting to happen
Delete^ That would be a good idea actually.
DeleteThings are about to get even tougher for Croatia Airlines.
Delete@ 9:27 "If they were not able to make any significant shifts/developments to their business when they had little to no competitive threat, they ain't gonna do it now when someone has their foot pressed hard on their throat."
DeleteOpposite of what you wrote here above. When you have little to no competition, virtually endless gov support, and no one to answer to, why should you change? It's when competition comes to town and stirs up the pot do you do a double take and start to make changes, but often it's too late.
You can forget about Croatia being able to lure in Ryanair with Malta Air-like setup. Both business environment and CCAA are not nearly flexible enough.
DeleteRemember that Malta Air operates more than 100 of Ryanair's 737s, including their entire fleet in Italy.
How many routes can be launched with one extra plane?
ReplyDeleteI think around 8 if they fly 2 weekly flights for each destination.
DeleteIt depends solely on the number of frequencies and distance from A to B. Two rotations if it's daily to Abu Dhabi and Paris, or 10 rotations if it's a daily to Sarajevo.
DeleteAverage flight duration from ZG is 1.5-2h on European routes. Both way flight + time before each flight for boarding and plane preparation.. so, max 3 rotations per plan per day or total 21 per week... This means 10 routes x2 a week with 1 plane.
DeleteNice. My money is on Riga, Berlin and Athens among the new routes.
ReplyDeleteMaybe some more Scandinavian routes too.
DeleteI think Bucharest will be launched. Next summer it will be 2 years since OU stopped flying there so Ryanair can qualify for the incentives.
DeleteMarseille is also a possibility.
DeleteI think a good reference point is their Zadar network as it may give an idication which routes might be operated.
DeleteThis is the Zadar network
DeleteAarhus, Bari, Beauvais, Bergamo, Berlin, Bologna, Bremen, Bucharest, Budapest, Charleroi, Cologne/Bonn, Dublin, Edinburgh, Eindhoven, Frankfurt, Gdańsk, Gothenburg, Hamburg, Karlsruhe/Baden-Baden, Kraków, London–Stansted, Maastricht/Aachen, Manchester, Marseille, Memmingen, Naples, Newcastle upon Tyne, Poznań, Prague, Rome–Ciampino, Stockholm–Skavsta (ends 30 October 2021), Växjö, Vienna, Warsaw–Modlin, Weeze, Wrocław
Krakow could be an option. I remember seeing it in that list list of Zagreb's busiest unserved routes.
DeleteThe Zadar network has no routes to Spain, Portugal and the Baltic states, which are among the top unserved routes from Zagreb.
DeleteZadar NW is only inbound for tourists, ZG should depend more on local demand supported by foreigners coming.
DeleteRiga, Vilnius, and Valencia were announced from Zadar in 2020, but never materialized due to the pandemic.
DeleteIt's insane how quickly they are expanding. They are announcing new routes every two months.
ReplyDeleteThat what crisis are for: Weaken the small and step into their markets and try to eat them. Say thank you to Black Rock, Vanguard and State Street who are backing the larger companies and supporting them with funds to expand their market share. Ryanair is a shark, OU is a small fish. So it is clear in which direction it will go.....
DeleteYou mean they are backing businesses with sound business model, proper management and track record of delivering profit year after year, while expanding their business?
DeleteHow dare they, they should venture into state-owned micro airlines with politically appointed management and know-how of making loss even in the most fruitful periods for aviation business.
5-6 routes if we are looking at 3-4 flights per week on each of them. Don't forget that they can also launch routes from their other bases, so he can announce around 10 routes or so with an addition of one extra plane to ZAG base
ReplyDeleteIf MOL himself is coming than I bet, it’s going to be an addition of two planes to totally five. That means more than a dozen of new routes, which makes up to forty as they have already said to operate from the summer season.
DeleteExciting. And O'Leary hinself is coming.
ReplyDeleteThis is really an assault by Ryanair on OU.
ReplyDeleteWell done to Ryanair for being so quick and proactive.
ReplyDeleteCould we see ZAG-SKP in this upcoming expansion?
ReplyDeleteIt's possible they add another short distance route since they have Podgorica and Sofia.
DeleteI wrote above, I think one of those short routes will be Bucharest. But let's see.
DeleteBoth TGD and SOF are now bookable until October 2022.
DeleteBudapest is also a candidate for one of the short routes.
DeleteIsn't the route to BUD a little too short?
DeleteWell they fly Zadar-Budapest in the summer
DeletePlease, come to Belgrade!
ReplyDeletePlease come to Ljubljana!
DeletePlease come to Ohrid!
DeletePlease come to Bihać !
DeleteI wonder what would happen if Ryanair came to BEG.
ReplyDeleteThey wouldn't expand at this rate because the market isn't so underserved with European destinations. ZAG did not have flights to places like Milan or Stockholm. Or year round flights to Athens or anything east of Zagreb. They would also have to compete against another low cost airline - Wizz Air - and a much stronger national airline.
DeleteSerbia is not in the EU, so no pressure to let them on the market and voluntarily they wont do that anyway. They opened up for Wizzair already to hve competition. And JU is still a gov supported carrier, so FR is not going to fight a gov supported carrier and lose money there
DeleteAs a signatory to the Open Skies agreement, Serbia doesn't really have the power to block FR from opening any route from BEG to the EU, does it?
DeleteDCV could probably block a base in BEG but not routes between EU destinations and Serbia due to the Open Skies agreement.
DeleteHowever, I agree with the comment above. FR wouldn't expand as rapidly in BEG as JU and others have a decent network in BEG. This wasn't the situation with ZAG.
JATBEGMEL - what are you talking about ? If Wizz can make a base in BEG, then on what basis would the DCV "block" FR from doing so if they wanted ? They are both European airlines which need to be given the same treatment. So there is absolutely nothing that DCV could do to "block", stop, prevent or prohibit them from doing so.
DeleteMaybe he announced domestic flights?
ReplyDeleteI think it's too early for them to enter domestic Croatian market. But who knows. Anything is possible.
DeleteI do not think so. They will wait for PSO, subventions
DeleteTender for those is supposed to be announced soon.
DeleteAt the same time they will decrease Baden Baden by one weekly flight next summer.
ReplyDeleteHow many in total?
Deletefrom 3x to 2x weekly.
DeleteGothenburg is also being decreased from 3 to 2 weekly but from November already, not next summer.
DeleteGOT goes from 4 to 3 weekly
DeleteYou are right, my mistake. From 4 to 3.
DeleteGreat news!
ReplyDeleteThe quickest way ZAG will recover from Covid.
ReplyDeleteWithout doubt. Good that the airport management finally realized they have to change their strategy.
DeleteWhat are the incentives they got like? During 1 year? Per passenger? What is estimated value of thdm?
DeleteReal picture we'll see what those incentives are over how many roots and frequencies they will keep. I guess that is why they want to kill Croatia airlines as soon as possible and to rule the market after.
The incentives programme launched by Zagreb Airport comprises of seven different models for the five-year period and only for the routes not operating during 2019 and 2020. The models include thresholds for total pax numbers and annual growth of traffic, as well as the number of based aircraft and operations performed. The requirement was that first flight had to be launched before June 30th and that at least 20% of traffic is accumulated during the winter period in order to reduce seasonality.
DeleteWe need Ryanair ASAP in Belgrade. Bravo Zagreb
ReplyDeleteNot so easy to do. What we need is Wizz to grow more aggressively - it will give the same result
DeleteWell maybe you are right, but Wizz currently from BEG flying mostly gastro routes, and the prices are not so cheap with a low frequency. I think that Ryanair is more suitable for as we can see at Zagreb
DeleteThey have zero competition in ZAG, that's why they do what they do whereas in BEG, you have Wizz and a national carrier which is much stronger and has a bigger footprint than does the national carrier of Croatia. Much easier to grow quickly in ZAG than it would be in BEG
DeleteHow can they be successful out of BEG when you have such a genius CCO at JU with his equally brilliant strategic plans ?
DeleteBEG already has many LCC's (Wizzair, Vueling, Norwegian, Eurowings, Pegasus, FlyDubai) and many more than ZAG (apart from Ryanair there is only Eurowings and Vueling together with FlyDubai that hasn't started yet but already decreased frequency to only 2 weekly) so it is logical FR can be more successful in Croatian capital.
DeleteAlso in BEG they are not getting money for opening new routes like in ZAG and last but not the least they have much stronger competition in Air Serbia than it is the case with national airline in Zagreb.
Why do we need Ryan in BEG? What can they offer new or different?! Their prices are not that low at all unsel you book 6+ months in advance or you are supper lucky. They luggage policy is very strict.
DeleteWhich routes they could offer that is missing on BEG?! people here really think that Ryan is cherity and they sell flights for free.
You obviously haven't flown with them much. They can offer many new routes, low fares and competition so that overpriced, low quality alternatives wake up.
DeleteExactly, I haven't because I don't buy 6 months in advance and than legacy on the same route was even cheaper, with better luggage policy, schedule, connections etc...
DeleteZagreb-Memmingen on next Monday is 35 euros.
DeleteFR is cheaper when buying fares without luggage. Throw in a 23kg suitcase and you can see they are not as cheap.
DeleteFor comparison:
Dates: 16.11-20.11
ZAG-TGD
Without luggage: 9,99€
With 20kg: 39,98€
TGD-ZAG
Without luggage: 23,39€
With 20kg: 54, 30€
Total -
Without bag: 33,38€
With bag: 94,28€
vs
BEG-TGD
W/O luggage: non existant fare
With 23kg: 52€
TGD-BEG
W/O luggage: non existant fare
With 23kg: 48€
Total-
With 23kg: 100€
Difference in price: 5,72€ (675 din.)
JU offers 21 weekly BEG-TGD, FR 2 weekly ZAG-TGD.
Total baggage allowance in JU 46kg vs 40kg with FR.
Some days JU is cheaper, others FR. Downside with JU is they don't offer no luggage fares between BEG-TGD.
Lol dude, people will not always pay for a 23kg bag and will prefer not to do transfer. You cannot generalise. Many people either fly with a small bag or a 10kg one.
DeleteZAG-INI please.
ReplyDeleteyou think there is demand?
DeleteAnyone know how they are performing from ZAG?
ReplyDeleteIf they are constantly announcing new routes and adding more aircraft, then they must be performing well.
DeleteI flew ZAG - TGD -ZAG. The loads were about 60-70%. The majority of the passengers were Montenegrians, very few tourists and Croats.
DeleteHonestly, that's better than I expected for the TGD route.
DeleteMe too. Shows how well OU could have done with a Q400 on the route.
DeleteThis is getting damn serious if Michael himself is arriving. Look what happened to airports such as CRL and BGY. However, FR are also quite notorious when it comes to suddenly abandoning an airport like they did with many in the past if the airport taxes are touched.
ReplyDeleteThis means that in 2022, ZAG figures will be seriously higher.
What I find incredible throughout this FR assault on OU, is that the CEO has remained totally invisible and silent - no media presence and no press releases. Imagine how his staff must be feeling. If anyone from inside OU is reading this post, it would be great to know if he has made any internal statements to rally the troops or at least give them comfort that the airline is working on a response or at least trying to figure how best to deal with this situation. At times of crisis like this, you need to have leadership.
ReplyDeleteThis is assault on LH and OU is just collateral damage.
Delete+100
DeleteWhat about something more exotic? They could start Amman from which they are launching many new routes this summer (plus Jordan is open to tourists) or maybe Morocco.
ReplyDeleteI think they will stick with EU markets first.
DeleteWell they launched TGD which not in the EU.
DeleteTrue I forgot about that but it is much shorter route than say Amman.
DeleteAt the moment, I don't think there would be enough demand do make such a long flight by FR standards profitable.
DeletePaphos is just slightly shorter than Amman, and Paphos is already announced for December, so I don't see the length of the flight as problem. Although I think Aqaba or Eilat/Ovda could work maybe even better than Amman in winter. And any destination in Morocco with one weekly, as well as Las Palmas or Tenerife. So far, passengers from Croatia used charters from LJU to mentioned destinations, especially while Adria was alive
DeletePaphos, Malaga and Malta are already quite “exotic”, Naples and Thessaloniki too. I wouldn’t go so far to speculate about Morocco, but I’m sure Ryanair is aware of the nearby Slovenian market habits as well, so routes to the Baleares, Canary Islands and other leisure destinations are fairly realistic.
DeleteYes, Jordan has definitely reopened. FR are resuming many destinations this winter to both Amman and Aqaba.
DeleteMany see this situation as an attack by Ryanair on OU. Even LH, AF, - named it - will be affected.
ReplyDeleteEveryone will feel it
DeleteGreat news! :)
ReplyDeleteCroatia Airlines is still in deep sleep.
ReplyDeleteHow dare you? They have new webpage ☺
DeleteMeanwhile Ljubljana Airport said how it was "unfazed" by FR expansion in Zagreb...
ReplyDeleteOSI - DBV or SPU would pick large regional numbers. Methinks…
ReplyDeleteBravo Hrvatska!
ReplyDeleteRyanair currently has a great promo going on with many flights just 9 euros basic fare from Zagreb.
ReplyDeleteThe magic of marketing. The return fare isn't 9, 99€, but it gets people talking and curious.
DeleteYes, it is. If you fly with a small bag that fits the seat in front of you. Some people do it if they go on a very short trip.
DeleteMy personal guess for the Tuesday expansion in ZAG:
ReplyDelete- Madrid or Barcelona
- Berlin
- Lisbon
- Athens
- Prague
- Billund
- Bucharest
- Kyiv
Not excluding domestic flights, but they first need to prove themselves in Europe.
Croatia airlines it was nice to know you. But only an outbreak of Covid-19 in the country can save you know.
ReplyDelete* now.
DeleteValencia
ReplyDeleteZagreb airport will need to open more shops soon.
ReplyDelete