Ryanair is continuing to grow its presence out of its base in Zagreb, with Croatia Airlines beginning to feel the effects of competing directly against Europe’s largest carrier. The budget airline, which launched operations out the Croatian capital just seven months ago, plans to maintain 22.1% of Zagreb Airport’s total capacity this year, with just three aircraft and half a million seats. Additional growth in operations is likely as the airline continues to add routes out of Zagreb with three new destinations already scheduled for the coming months. The airline’s annual share of seats from the Croatian capital is now just seventeen points behind the national carrier, which will stand at 39%. Changes remain possible as Croatia Airlines may begin restoring some of the destinations it suspended during the coronavirus pandemic, although, so far, only one of ten suspended routes is to be restored.
Croatia Airlines is feeling particular pressure on its Dublin and Rome operations, which are proving to be Ryanair’s most successful out of its Zagreb base. According to the “Croatia Aviation” portal, Ryanair’s average cabin load factor on its Rome service over the past three months has exceeded 80% on the Airbus A320 aircraft. On the other hand, Croatia Airlines maintains flights to Italy’s capital via Split with a Dash 8 turboprop. The Croatian carrier has also been forced to temporarily suspend flights to Dublin due to reduced demand, with services scheduled to resume on March 31. In contrast, Ryanair is currently maintaining four weekly flights between the two cities.
Ryanair’s presence in Zagreb is also expected to be felt on Croatia Airlines' finances. Last year’s results are due to be published by the end of the month, with the carrier noting it will continue to streamline operations and reduce costs in 2022. Ryanair recently said, “Croatia Airlines is a distinguished carrier, but it has lost touch with the development of air travel in Croatia, particularly from Zagreb. We do not see them as a competitor because even on the routes we both operate on we fly to different airports. Ryanair will change travel habits in Zagreb and encourage locals to travel more by air. The fact of the matter is that Croatia Airlines has not achieved growth and profit in the past four years”. Last year Ryanair submitted an appeal to the EU General Court against the European Commission’s decision to approve coronavirus aid provided by the Croatian government to the national airline. A court is expected to rule on the matter this year.
It's really amazing how quickly FR has expanded in Zagreb.
ReplyDeleteThey are hiring new crew in ZAG today
DeleteFor all their conciliary tone towards OU, I think their aim is to get rid og them.
ReplyDeleteOf course it is. With OU gone, FR will have the upper hand in all negotiations with ZAG. Just look at SKP and W6. You never put all of your eggs in one basket and FR is trying to force ZAG to put all of theirs in the green and yellow basket.
DeleteNot just negotiations but discounts. The more passengers and the bigger the share, the greater the discounts.
DeleteAnd then their fares go up too.
DeleteIt won't be much of a loss. OU is rapidly becoming an obsolete institution. Another 2-3 years max and they're gone.
DeleteIn addition to requesting bigger discounts, FR could also put pressure on ZAG not to work on bringing new carriers that would compete with them. If OU goes bust and FR reaches 55% marketshare then they can always threaten to leave. ZAG could not afford that and they would have to give in to all of their demands.
DeleteNo one could rush in and replace them. Maybe Wizz Air could but then it would be the same scenario ... just in pink.
It is true that it is never wise to go to bed with a single LCC.
DeleteMaybe ZAG should have done it differently. As in offer discounts to FR to launch flights without opening a base. I mean they could have easily introduced flights from Hahn, Dublin, Charleroi ... without actually opening a base in ZAG and obliterating OU.
DeleteInterestingly both SKP and ZAG are managed by the same company.
DeleteBut for now it is very good for ZAG. I mean it says Ryanair's capacity is at half a million. That is an extra ponteital 500,000 passengers for Zagreb which is by no means a small number.
DeleteIt's a great result for ZAG but for them it would be even better if OU manages to survive so as to maintain a healthy dose of competition.
DeleteIf FR throws a tantrum and suspends a certain route, ZAG could always try to encourage OU to jump in.
I don't see OU surviving until summer 2023.
DeleteBoth SKP and ZAG are not managed by the same company. SKP is managed by TAV Airports Holding whereas ZAG is managed by MZLZ. MZLZ is a company consisting of 5 shareholders and TAV has only 15% shares in MZLZ.
DeleteSo it can not be said that TAV is managing ZAG. All decisions are taken and implemented through the approval of board of all shareholders jointly.
TAV effectively runs the airport. CEO and route development manager are both from TAV. TAV has taken over handling at the airport too.
DeleteYou are right, the CEO is from TAV but TAV can not dictate the decisions. Its a consortium and TAV has 15% shares.
DeleteThe former CEO was From ADP and it was the same. You wouldn't say ADP was effectively running the airport at that time.
The airport is runned by a consortium of shareholders jointly. It doesn't matter who is the CEO, who is the CFO etc. The airport management is there to implement the shareholders' decisions.
Ground Handling is a separate company and has nothing to do with the airport management. Ground handling company is a third party doing its job overthere.
This has more to do with Croatia Airlines' failure than Ryanair's success.
ReplyDeleteYes and no. Ryanair is known for destroying carriers so.
DeleteDestroying normal carriers, where some effort need to be made in order to destroy them, yes. FR on the other way, don't have to do anything to destroy OU. They just fill the gaps. And they do it only after OU failed to grow in ZAG (and elsewhere), which the airport expected. If the OU had grown on only 10-15 % per year over 30 years of the existence, if they built proper hub, had wider variety of destinations in the network, higher volume of traffic, bigger fleet, than FR would have to actually work on destroying them. And @An.09.04 is absolutely right : this has much more to do with OU failure than FR success
DeleteRome should come as no surprise to anyone. Who in his right mind expected OU to be competitive with their one stop flights vs non-stop ones on Ryanair?
ReplyDeletePersonally I think OU was pretty idiotic for not responding. They have a smaller plane so they could have operated a much higher number of frequencies with a much better timetable.
Personally I expect their finances to be extremely bad. It begs the question if they have crossed the point of no return especially since they have only announced the resumption of BCN flights for this summer. Seems like summer 2022 will be yet another wasted opportunity for them.
OU is dead man walking.
Making Rome nonstop would be the most obvious thing they could have done when Ryanair came to Zagreb. Yet they chose to do nothing. Now watch it get terminated.
DeleteDoes FR fly to Ciampino from Zagreb?
DeletePlus with the Q400 they could have offered morning and afternoon flights thus improving connectivity especially to places like SKP or SJJ. Even getting 5 transfer passengers from both destinations would have a positive impact on their Q400 load.
DeleteI think it won't get terminated as long as they do well on SPU-FCO. However their sales from ZAG to FCO have probably dropped to zero.
@Anon 9.11
DeleteNo, they fly to Fiumicino from Zagreb.
Agree with Nemjee. I mean OU has the perfect aircraft for this route - the Q400. Is it that difficult for them to fill 80 seats to Rome? To make it profitable on this route with that sort of equipment you probably don't need more than 30 passengers each way.
DeleteIf they don't have enough Q400s for non-stop flights to Rome then they could have always operate a W pattern as ZAG-FCO-SPU-FCO-ZAG.
DeleteHowever operating FCO via SPU is so 1970s.
Croatia Airlines operating Rome via Split and Dubrovnik is just a continuation of what JAT used to fly. It operated the exact same route 30 years ago.
DeleteAlso this routing should not come as a surprise. Croatia Airlines still flies Athens-Dubrovnik-Zagreb despite the competition from Aegean.
Delete@An.11.09
DeleteJAT never operated the same route. JAT did not fly ZAG to FCO, via SPU or nonstop. In Italy, JAT flew from BEG and ZAG to Milano and from DBV to Venice. JAT operated also BEG-SPU-FCO and BEG-DBV-FCO. So, Croatia Airlines copied only how the route was operated 30-40-50 years ago, it was not the exact route.
As per JAT timetable 1974 and 1975, JAT did fly ZAG-SPU-ROM twice per week. I have collection of summer timetables from 70's and 80's
DeleteI have collection of JAT timetables as well. The oldest one from 1977, until 1991. The one from 1977, the Rome flights were BEG-SPU-FCO and BEG-DBV-FCO. No ZAG. And it was like that the entire period 1977-1991. Even if there was ZAG-SPU-FCO flight back in 1974 and 1975, it did not operate later, which means that OU flight to Rome is not "continuation of what JAT used to fly 30 years ago"
Delete"JAT never operated the same route. JAT did not fly ZAG to FCO, via SPU or nonstop"
Deleteis it so hard to admit that you're wrong and sometimes others know better?
by the way, nobody likes arrogant "know-it-alls", it was like that at school and later also at work
Of course I don't know everything. All people who are regular on this blog know I admited several times I was wrong, and even apologised. But if someone says that OU continued to do on FCO service what JAT was doing 30 years ago, it is simply not true and does not correspond with facts, and I cannot say I was wrong because I was right. I admit I was wrong when I said "never" operated the route, because I don't know if such service existed before 1977. And not only I have timetables, but I have worked with JAT 1985-1991, and I know for sure that during last 15 years of JAT route ZAG-SPU-FCO did not operate. On the other hand we have only some anonymous claiming first that OU copied the service 30 years ago, to switch later to two weekly 1974-1975. Who is right and who wrong here, I let other visitors conclude, preferably not anonymous.
DeleteFrom 0 to 22% share in just a couple of months is a job well done.
ReplyDeleteAlso a big challenge to LJU.
ReplyDeleteIndeed. But remember what LJU management said. They are unfazed by FR.
DeleteSure, if you believe every single word these clowns say.
DeleteHuge mistake for selling LJU to Fraport.
DeleteCroatia Airlines' only response to Ryanair in 7 months was to bring back Barcelona in June 2022. Well done.
ReplyDeleteOh but they have BCG
DeleteThe only thing they have done is reduce prices on routes they compete against Ryanair on the days Ryanair is operating that route.
DeleteThings will get worse now when they start Bratislava. I assume some passengers will migrate from Vienna route.
ReplyDeleteI don't think someone living in Vienna will be willing to fly to Bratislava and then drive or go by train to Vienna.
DeleteTrust me for 20 euro return tickets they would.
DeleteCroatia Airlines probably won't last much longer. Look at FR in Zadar too. They are going crazy in Croatia.
ReplyDeleteI was hoping that Ryanair's arrival would have a positive impact on Croatia Airlines in the sense that it would make them wake up and start competing. Now I see how wrong I was unfortunately.
ReplyDeleteIt's a real shame. There are some really good professionals working across OU and doing a good job but the management is a different story.
ReplyDelete+1 if you gave the management a billion euros they would not know what to do with it and would still be making losses.
DeleteI really do wonder how Croatia Airlines will survive FR. Ryanair is obviously trying to get rid of them. The new route launches, the lawsuit, bickering in the media... They won't calm down until they win.
ReplyDeleteWhat can Croatia Airlines realistically do at this point?
ReplyDeleteAt this point very little. However ZAG did warn them a few years ago that this is coming. That is when they should have fixed their fleet by adding a few more Q400s and by working on attracting as many transfers as possible. Like that when FR moved in they would replace the loss of O&D traffic with transfers, similar to what JU did when W6 showed up.
DeleteGood luck Croatia Airlines. You will need it.
ReplyDeleteOU's load factor was always relatively low. In 60% range. With Ryanair and covid, I can imagine what it was like last year.
ReplyDeleteIt does not have to mean it was bad. They operated a lot more Q400s last year.
DeleteThis is sad to watch.
ReplyDeleteThey already have double the route OU has from ZAG, their share is growing, their LF is improving, they are hiring more crew. It is just a matter of time before plane number 4 arrives.
ReplyDeleteO'Leary said late last year that a fourth plane will be based in Zagreb in 2022. So I assume we will get at least 4 more new routes.
DeleteI don't understand that OU didn't see this coming
ReplyDeleteHow are FR's regional reports performing? Sofia, Podgorica, Thessaloniki?
ReplyDeleteI would like to know that too. Paphos as well.
DeleteI think their Malaga route is also doing really well.
ReplyDeleteOnly 1 out of 10 suspended routes will be resumed... I'm lost for words.
ReplyDeletePeople are complaining that OU is not responding and introducing new routes. Well, usually if an airline isn't responding in face of huge competition it means their finances are stretched to the very limit.
ReplyDeleteThis mess was made by the government. They should have focused on selling Croatia Airlines years ago. Instead now they are going to have an even bigger loss making airline competing against Europe's largest airline on at its home base.
ReplyDeleteI really hope that FR considers domestic flights. It'll be very beneficial for Croatia.
ReplyDeleteThat would be a final nail in the coffin. But FR said it is not interested in domestic routes at the moment.
DeleteRyanair's arrival is great news for Zagreb. Who cares about OU.
ReplyDeletePeople said the same about Adria and look at the situation now.
DeleteI don't believe Ryanair is "after" Croatia Airlines. FR saw an opportunity and seized it. Whether OU will survive or not is of no concern to FR. FR will come, make as much money as possible and stay or leave depending on the situation.
ReplyDelete+1
DeleteI think FR will behave the same way they did in Romania and Bulgaria. They will launch their planes on busier routes and attack OU by slashing fares.
DeleteOU has a big battle on its hands.
ReplyDeleteAnd no one competent to lead it into battle...
DeleteThey are also 7 months late
Delete... and counting.
DeleteYou snooze you loose
ReplyDeleteCongratulations to Ryanair for recognizing an opportunity, negotiating the best deal possible for them, identifying busy underved and served routes and achieving this result in just a couple of months.
ReplyDeleteRyan will become in Croatia what Wizz is in Macedonia.
ReplyDeleteIt will not, Macedonia has only few legacies and more then 70% of passengers are carried by Wizz, on other hand in Croatia, no airline has more then 20% of market share and if Ryan is growing other airlines are too.
DeleteComparing apples to oranges
DeleteAbsolutely wrong. It will never be the case. Markets are totally different. Potential of Croatia is huge, but wasted because of wrong policy and wrong politics, and one of the most disastrous results of such politics and policies is Croatia Airlines.
DeleteLet's see if they make a replacement for their planned Zagreb-Lviv route which obviously won't happen now.
ReplyDeleteI see them launching some routes to Poland or the Baltics.
DeleteBravo Hrvatska!
ReplyDeleteRyanair is becoming OU's biggest nightmare.
ReplyDeleteIt is not becoming, it already is.
DeleteI'm not a big fan of Ryanair but I must say they said everything correctly here. Croatia Airlines needs to get its act together and fast.
ReplyDeleteLufthansa will also feel Ryanair's presence in Zagreb.
ReplyDeleteTheir on board service now equates to Ryanair.
DeleteDon't expect that all passengers flying with FR will be new passengers. There will be a lot of them which will just change airline and move especially from OU.
ReplyDeleteRyanair just announced two more planes in Budapest (total 8) and they have 62 total routes :O hope something similar for Zagreb.
ReplyDeleteI'm surprised it took them this long to have 8 planes in BUD. I mean Malev has been dead for a decade.
Delete^ Don't forget, BUD is Wizz Air's playground.
DeleteSoon they are going to have more flights than OU.
ReplyDeletePoor OU
ReplyDeleteI think we are at the point of no return for OU
DeleteThey are not only giving up on FR routes but ones they compete against other flag carriers, like Lisbon and Helsinki.
ReplyDeleteI find it very surprising at the low level of cooperation they have with peer Star members like TAP or Aegean for example.
DeleteI don't know how many times I wrote and obviously I have to write it once again : They are NOT Star Alliance member. They are * servant. They are not partner, their roles are to pay membership and feed LH. So not surprising at all.
Deletewhere is that written? on the star alliance website i can only find: member since 2004
DeleteSo, if I don't write, or no one else writes, that some people are stupid, or uhljebs, it means that stupid people, or uhljebs, don't exist, and don't come here to advocate their precious OU? I wouldn't say so ☺
DeleteFacts please, is it a member now or not? If not, where did you get this information from?
DeleteWhat Croatia do with this membership is another matter. it is not for nothing that they are facing bankruptcy
One must be very limited to see everything black and white, and insist on form only, instead of content. Croatia, for example, as a state, is formally democracy. Actually, factually and contentually, it is not democracy but partitocracy. Similarly, Croatia Airlines is formally Star alliance member and it fills the form by paying fat membership money. In real life, it is not using advantages and benefits of its formal membership and is actually, factually and contentually tiny, irrelevant, humiliated pathetic feeder. Anyone with IQ higher than 50 should be capable of understanding that, which was actually my message 11.53.
DeletePozdrav iz Rijeke… Ajmo na pivu ;)
Delete😃 Moze!
DeleteAs quick as they came and expanded, they will vanish from ZAG's scene. Why? Because ZAG is obliged to develop it's terminal according to the number of passengers. Last thing they want is that concession contract forces them to expand that quick. ZAG is holding FR on a leash. If they don't succeed, FR will go away. Even in some interviews ZAG's general manager said that numbers promised by FR are just FR's numbers, meaning that they are not optimistic. And why would they be? To invest another dozen million euros on cheap P2P passengers? FR was ZAG's trick to initiate instant recovery, nothing more or less. Here's a simple example - let's hope that widebodies will come back to ZAG eventually, do you really think that ZAG will let that FR's aircraft are in the way of accommodating big players (on top of the fact that FR insists on parking at gates next to the terminal, and not on the old apron)? Also, ZAG is well aware that FR will suffocate CTN, meaning that if CTN collapses ZAG will loose all the possible connections, leaving them with just few legacy carrier routes and bunch of nonsense P2P routes. If you think that there will be some other, new national airline, haha, good one. Almost good as if you're thinking that big players will increase frequencies to ZAG or even base some aircraft. ZAG without connection passengers with legacy carriers is doomed. FR has brought nothing good except instant passenger recovery.
ReplyDeleteYeah right, they will vanish from ZAG the same way they vanished from all other 200 airports they fly to LOL
Delete11:50, please read whole comment one more time. There is a point, not just some random conclusions.
Deletethere are tons of examples where ryanair has closed its base. it just depends on the discounts on the airport fees.
DeleteSo it will be exciting if ZAG does not offer any discounts on the new flight routes and Croatia is broke and the airport will lose large revenues.
LOL once again
DeleteLOL about always the same comments you write here. so much bitterness.
Deleteyou are right in many things when it comes to Croatia. But your way of writing and commenting on other people when they don't agree with you keeps reminding me why I was lucky enough to leave the Balkans. this friend/enemy thinking is always annoying
"cheap P2P passengers"?, widebodies back to ZAG and FR is vanishing"? "new national airline"? What else I can say but LOL? And if you don't agree with me and place me on the Balkans because of that, I can only reply paraphrasing the old wisdom saying : "One can leave Balkans but Balkans will never leave him"
DeleteWhen FR develops network and pax numbers, they will keep growing it. They were most vulnerable at the start of operations but we are witnessing more than smooth sailing so they are at ZAG to stay....everyone else, fight for your piece of cake.
ReplyDeleteHow many passengers have Croatia Airlines carried in year 2021?
ReplyDelete