Belgrade Nikola Tesla Airport is now acting as one of the main European gateways for Russian passengers seeking to leave their country amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and economic sanctions. One of the world's leading travel data and analytics companies, ForwardKeys, notes that available seat capacity scheduled in the first week of March from Russia to Serbia shows around a 50% increase compared to February 21, before full-scale military operations began. Capacity will grow all the way through to the start of the 2022 summer season, on March 27, with Air Serbia yet to update its schedules for the coming summer on its Russia routes, although the airline may be unable to restore its seasonal operations to the airports of Rostov-on-Don and Krasnodar which are currently closed by Russian authorities due to their proximity to the war zone.
The number of tickets issued from Russia for onward travel via Serbia surged 60% in the week immediately after the start of the war compared to the whole of January. Although 85% of Russian transfers via Belgrade were destined to Montenegro during the first month of the year, the figure declined to 40% in the week after the start of the war, as Serbia became a hub for onward travel to other European countries. The main markets for onward travel for Russian passengers via Belgrade, following Montenegro, are Cyprus, France, Switzerland and Italy. Serbia is also one of the rare European markets to see its global flight bookings decline less than 10% following the start of the war, with most other European markets registering a decline of between 30% and 50%.
The Vice President of Insights at ForwardKeys noted, “What’s most notable is the speed with which Serbia has become the gateway for travel between Russia and Europe. However, these are early days in a global political and economic crisis; so, what happens to travel will certainly be affected by the progress of the war and the impact of sanctions”. With Air Serbia doubling its capacity to Russia over the coming weeks, its flights have been selling out fast, most notably in the direction from Moscow to Belgrade. A number of passengers are also using Belgrade to transfer via other European carriers including Lufthansa, Austrian Airlines and KLM.
 |
| Fare variations for Moscow - Belgrade service |
Very interesting. The final destinations make sense.
ReplyDeleteThey really need to update their schedules for summer. What are the doing?
ReplyDeleteWith the Ruble collapsing very few Rusians would be able to afford a foreign holiday.
Delete"Very few" still means "a lot2, from a small country`s perspective.
DeleteHow is that related to their summer schedule not being updated for almost any route? Moscow certainly won't be 5 weekly at the end of the month.
DeleteIt's not just about holidays, there are many Russians living around Europe. That is why Cyprus has been so popular as a final destination. There are thousands of them living on the island and they need a way to travel between the two countries. Since there are not flights between Turkey and the unoccupied areas in the south, Air Serbia remains as the only viable option.
DeleteThey update schedule on majority of routes 2 days ago. Check AirSerbia website.
DeleteOnly route on which they didn't is Moscow but that it is probably as they are waiting for permission .
Speaking of updating schedules, JU had the A321 show as aircraft of operation for AMS on its website, from June I believe. It has since been replaced with A319.
DeleteHopefully Air Serbia receives permission for more than 14 weekly flights in the light of these special occurences
ReplyDeleteThey could fill 4x daily on a320 right now. Flights are packed full
ReplyDeleteThey are using the A330 as much as possible.
DeleteWill they compensate their inability to fly to Krasnodar and Rostov with some other new routes?
ReplyDeleteSomething tells me those planned new Sochi flights won't be operating this summer either.
DeleteI don't think so. Even Russian carriers that are flying to Sochi have to make a massive detour. They are all routed via western Kazakhstan and the Caspian Sea. I think serving any other destination would require a major detour. At the end of the day, Air Serbia is on friendly terms with Aeroflot and together they can sell two stop flights to pretty much anywhere in Russia.
DeleteI believe the Aeroflot codeshare has been terminated. since last week so Air Serbia can avoid any issues of selling tickets to via Belgrade to third countries.
DeleteCould they still issue tickets via interline? Either way, SU can still bring them to Moscow and JU will carry them via two separate tickets if sanctions are an issue. For Aeroflot what matters is that it is JU flying out of Moscow and not someone like Lufthansa or Finnair which might not be as friendly towards them.
DeleteLike the Russians buying Lufthansa tickets from BEG although there's no codeshare/interline with JU.
DeleteRussian carries have to take a detour because the airspace north of Sochi next to Ukraine is restricted. JU is coming from the Black Sea so what would be the problem?
DeleteWell, if JU is flying to let's say Samara then they would have to take the same flight path like all flights from IST. Those take the same routing via the Caspian Sea and western Kazakhstan. It's quite a detour.
DeleteYeah, i was just talking about Sochi.
DeleteAh ok, Sochi would be ok and it could actually make sense as that whole area could use them to travel abroad. Then again it all depends if JU and Serbia are under pressure from the EU to not grow in order to complicate things for Russia.
DeleteTK was flying direct into AER via the Black Sea with no major detour.
DeleteNo wonder they have added an extra flight to Larnaca.
ReplyDeleteYes, less than a week before the actual flight takes off while flights from Moscow have been sold out. These are the fares for tonight's flight:
DeleteBEG-LCA: 7.100 RSD
LCA-BEG: 14.700 RSD
So the flight out of Belgrade will depart more or less empty while the return flight should have around 70 to 80 passengers. Like I said, this flight was added when SVO flights were more or less sold out so this extra LCA flight had to rely on European feed.
I'm very interested to see their February/March results.
ReplyDeleteTheir February results have been published.
Deletehttps://www.exyuaviation.com/2022/03/air-serbia-posts-passenger-increase.html
The impact of this war will be felt in March
Yes but like the gentleman from the article says, it really depends how long it will last.
Delete"However, these are early days in a global political and economic crisis; so, what happens to travel will certainly be affected by the progress of the war and the impact of sanctions”
JU is going to profit from this quite a bit.
ReplyDeleteWell not surprised about the increase in demand. They are the only ones allowed to fly there and it is quicker to fly from Moscow to BEG than to IST.
ReplyDeleteI assume there is increased cargo on this route too, with usual supply channels now disrupted.
ReplyDeleteAll passengers that were booked on Aeroflot to BEG and many other destinations have been moved to Air Serbia.
ReplyDeleteI'm assuming Nordwind passengers will also be transferred on Air Serbia flights too.
DeleteThey will also probably transfer all booked passengers from Slovenia and Croatia too.
DeleteI doubt this will last for too long
ReplyDeletehey key will be for JU to make this a long term success.
Delete*the key
DeleteIt doesn't have to last long, it needs to last long enough for Air Serbia to financially profit from all this.
DeleteThese thousands of extra passengers should bring them back to life. It's thanks to the Russians that many of their destinations received a boost. With the Serbian market nicely recovering this should help them become more competitive when it comes to point to point passengers.
It looks like this could go for years, frankly. Everyone is digging its trench deeper, I don't see this situation, not just war, going to fast resolution. And the storm around flights is slowly calming down, it seems like it will be accepted to have couple of windows to Russia.
DeleteI think the EU will have to work on normalizing the situation as they expect inflation to reach 7% in March (Jan. 5.1%, Feb. 5.8%).
DeleteUkraine is already willing to negotiate on the status of Crimea and Donbass. If these two issues get resolved then it would be phenomenal news for JU as their KRR and ROV flights could overfly Ukraine and the Crimea making the flight much shorter. ROV would take as long as LCA thus not requiring a split schedule.
Yes but when you look at Russians planning to keep lesors' aircraft you can't see this is heading to prompt pacification. Doesn't look good.
DeleteThey will not be "normalizing the situation" any time soon. The things have gone too far.
DeleteWhat about the IST with 22 daily flights to 12 destinations in Russia? (Note that in all aviation criteria IST is count in Europe)
ReplyDeleteWhat about it?
DeleteNothing, it's just funny to see people cheering for 2 daily flights and announce themselves "key carrier" and "gateway", while there's another airline and airport doing the same operations with 10 times bigger volumes.
DeleteIgnorance is bliss :)
Who is cheering? The article says "one of the main European gateways for Russian passengers" (ONE OF) and quotes the person from the analytics company "The Vice President of Insights at ForwardKeys noted, “What’s most notable is the speed with which Serbia has become the gateway for travel between Russia and Europe. "
DeleteSeems like you are the one with the problem
If we speak about possible EU ban for JU to fly to Russia then we speak about "European airline company who still did not join EU sanctions and who profits from the war".
DeleteBut when we speak about JU being gateway between EU and Russia then it suddenly JU becomes "less important" because TK is bigger.
Double standards as usually.
TK offers 5 daily 777-300er flights to Moscow VKO.
DeleteAeroflot flew 5 daily narrow-body SVO-IST before the ban.
Aeroflot's low cost Pobeda flies to IST from 7-8 different airports in Russia.
It's not wise to compare the IST airport to BEG.
It's the largest airport in Europe in terms of passenger numbers in 2020, 2021, and early 2022, as well as the airport area.
BEG is doing well for its size.
@Anon at 11:40 You want non-EU airline to join EU sanctions? That's a double standard. Accept Serbia into EU right now.
DeleteJU has usually been quick to respond to most situations. They have done well now too.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if JFK is also getting increased feed.
ReplyDeleteI assume Serbia will also become a more popular destination with Russian passengers considering they can enter it without a visa. And probably the only place in Europe at the moment where they won't face racism.
ReplyDeleteTurkey will benefit most since it's preffered leisure destination for Russians even in regular times. But sure, Serbia will see more Russian people around, not just for tourism. If this lasts, some business will go this way too.
DeleteMontenegro still gets most of transfers so with possible new JU flights to Moscow this could be valuable for MNE too although the lack of Ukrainians and Russians will hit Montenegro most this season.
Interesting data. I'm wondering if this drop of share of Montenegro transfers affects load factors on flights to Podgorica and Tivat?
ReplyDeleteAnd I'm glad JU benefits flying alone to CDG. I don't get AF Belgrade strategy.
Italian transfer share looks good, how these people reach Italy since JU flies just 2 per week to Rome and Milano?
There isn't a drop of transfer passengers on flights to Montenegro, the share of transfer passengers to Montenegro simply decreased because the overall share of transfer passengers from Russia grew a lot so it increased on other routes. It's not about passenger numbers.
DeleteNot sure it's just relative drop. Let's say there were 100 transfers before, so there are 160 now (60% more). In those 100 before, 85 were transfering to MNE, and in these 160 now there are 65 transfers to Montenegro. 85 vs 65
DeleteIt is logical there is slight decrease compared to January when many people from Russia went to Montenegro for New Year and Christmas.
DeleteSo this share of transfers looked differently last November/September/July? OK then.
DeleteKako Rusi plaćaju kartu Air Srbiji
ReplyDeleteCash?
DeleteOnly 7 banks are affected by sanctions. Don't know about Russia, but in Serbian market there is like 20+ banks, so I don't see issue with this. The bigger issue is ruble value and exchange, but I'm sure JU has a lot of experience working with weak currencies.
DeleteWhat I wonder is the following: many insurance companies are no longer insuring planes in Russian airspace (e.g., even Air Astana is now cancelling all flights into Russia as their leased planes are not insured there). How is this with Air Serbia? Who are they leasing planes from and who insures them (local Serbian insurance companies or not)? What Israel does, to get around this and to keep El Al flying to Russia, is that the country guarantees for any damage / problems that could occur to El Al planes over / on Russian territory. Is this the way Serbia wants to go, too?
ReplyDeletePegasus also just announced that they are canceling all flights to Russia because of insurance issues
DeleteEx-Yu, I think by now it's worth making an article about why Air Serbia hasn't published its summer schedule yet. This is very weird.
ReplyDeleteNisu objavili letnji red letenja to je tacno...ali zato prodaju karte:)))
DeleteUspeo sam da nadjem povratnu kartu za let FRA-BEG-FRA u maju za manje od 200 evra, sto je postalo ekstremna retkost u proteklih godinu dana.
Ne da je manje od 200 eur nego imas i za manje od 150 (JU).
DeleteNije to tolika retkost bila ali naravno zavisi koliko si pre leta kupovao kartu.
Key question here is what EU/US decides. If they want to put pressure on Russia they will easily tighten pressure on Serbia to limit or stop flights to Russia. I know they can not do it officially but as you all know there are subtle ways they can do it. If they decide to leave it as it is as a 'pressure valve' or 'channel of transport' then JU can profit very nicely over the next few months. I doubt conflict will stop soon, when it does and lets assume Russia accomplishes some military aims, then sanctions will be there even more. So it boils down to decision by EU/US to see if this link to Belgrade is significant or not. If not, then there is also possibility this can last 1 or 2 years. I doubt longer as Russia will not be able to sustain this draconian sanctions long term, unless people are willing to go back 30-40 years which is so drastic that global economy will be impacted (as it already is with commodity prices, inflation, air travel, air tickets and so on).........Shi....y, really shi..y years back-to-back, first Covid, now this. No rest, no break. Constant barrage of bad news where airline industry is hit straight in the gut.
ReplyDeleteAs I mention two comments above (9:42), this could also be very short-lived depending on what insurance companies insuring JU planes will decide (and Serbia's reaction to this). Would actually be good to have some sort of deeper analysis of the legal / practical possibilities / barriers for JU continuing flying to Russia ...
DeleteYou are correct, insurance angle is very important. Actually this is more of a threat to JU flying to Russia then my above note about political pressure from EU/US.
DeleteI believe that's why they are talking with Etihad about aircraft.
DeleteWell I believe that the catastrophic scenario for JU would be the EU ban the entry of all Russians citizens to the EU. Let's hope that won't happen.
DeleteYes, you are correct, but I think BEG will still serve Russians for Turkey, other regions, so I think the flow will continue. I also doubt EU will ban it.
DeleteBel Cio, banning entry of ALL Russians would not happen IMO. Sanctions can have an indirect impact on the average Russian but cannot be directly aimed at them. EU keep repeating that they not against Russians but against the Russian regime and the oligarchs who support it.
DeleteWhy is JU not deploying YU-APH (A320) to SVO anymore? I just checked the system and A319 has been scheduled for the whole month.
ReplyDeleteI believe the A320 is under maintenance. It has not flown in 6 days.
DeleteI saw it on FR24 yesterday and it was moving around Jat Tehnika so definitely maintenance.
DeleteOne more thing. Someone noted above that there might be smaller size Russians that could afford to leave due to sudden collapse of Ruble. I slightly disagree as there are many Russian that have cash/foreign currency stashed. Also if we do math, 146MM Russians, 23% appx. against the war, then we shrink that to lets say 15% with adequate means and desire to leave, affluent mid income city crowd, you then have 22MM Russians as potential emigration. To be safe you can cut that even more to half, 11MM as a core group. If Belgrade and JU gets 3% of that, that is huge, but still you can see potential there.
ReplyDeleteWell, they are profiting from the war unlike many other airlines.
ReplyDeleteThey are only flying as they did before the war.
DeleteIt is their core business. Very far away from "profiting from the war".
I agree. They are flying, catering to needs of Russian, other passengers. Labeling it profiting is wrong, put it simply.
DeleteThere are direct rail links to Russia from Finland still operating. Are they war profiteering as well? KE is still flying to and over Russia. TK, QR, FZ, AI as well. Not everyone has stopped operating in Russia. Japanese brand Uniqlo for example has openly stated it is not going to shut shop in Russia as they believe clothes are a basic necessity. Are they war profiteering as well? I wonder how many other companies profited on the collapse of Yugoslavia. OS? I guess it's not war profiteering if it comes from a Western European country or the United States.
DeleteSF, well it is pure profiting. Tickets were sold for high prices for/to Russia. While 90% of Europe was restricted others chose to remain open so logically it is a profit from the war, right? Facts as they are.
DeleteProfit from Serbia not enforcing sanctions to Russian airlines, let's be fair and clear.
DeleteIt is a profit from DEMAND created by Western sanctions, not war.
DeleteIf not, why aren't Saudia, Emirates and Qatar under sanctions as well?
@12,36
DeleteNo other company has done this? Not a single one? Not long ago, at the start of the pandemic, when millions were stranded abroad, desperate to go home, and the high prices airlines were changing. It wasn't profiteering? Mind you, alooot of light loads and high fares. I still remember FZ charging 1.000€ for DXB-BEG one way, only to cancel the flight a day before as the load was too light. No refund was given, just vouchers. Wizz is selling BEG-AUH for as little as 30€ lately mind you. While airlines like LH were charging their citizens to repatriate home, JU repatriated 15.000 Serbians for free. No word on that. Ticket prices are high due to the high demand and limited supply. Rosaviatsia hasn't yet approved JU the extra flights it had requested, which will lower prices. JU has upped capacity where ever it could and is still not keeping up with demand.
-100
Delete@JATBEGMEL
DeleteHe knows all of it, but still it is stronger than him. He must say it in order to feel better.
Show some mercy :-)
Would it be ironic if those who protest Air Serbia also own stock of Lockheed Martin? Stock is recently making a killing (pun intended) just like many other defense companies. War profiteering at it's finest.
DeleteDo not forget that things could change any moment with Russian passport holders being prohibited to enter Schengen+EEA countries.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I just read that AirAstana decided to stop all flights to/from Russia. Might be that they have some fresh info from Kazakh government. Who knows, but certainly does not look promising....
It has to do with aircraft insurance.
DeleteI purchased ticket last night for 300EUR one way from BNX to SVO, but only possible date and acceptable flight from BNX was on 21/3 with more than 5 hrs stopover in BEG. Timetable should be adapted asap.
ReplyDelete^ Good job Air Serbia !
ReplyDeletewhat's going on with JU652? It is circling around BEG after takeoff?
ReplyDeleteWeird day today! First Wizz Uk and Air Serbia made go arounds one after another, now 652 returns....
DeleteThe plane is at a remote stand now. So either technical problem or threat.
DeleteAnd right after touch down it was taxing along taxiway towards runway 30 where it is right now according to FR24. In past that location was used to inspect airplanes after bomb threats.
Deletehttps://www.exyuaviation.com/2022/03/air-serbia-flight-to-moscow-forced-to.html
DeleteIf Bosnia had a national airline, it also could have served as a transfer carrier.
ReplyDeleteBig assumption.
DeleteWhy?
DeleteToo many ifs.
DeleteInteresting:
ReplyDeleteDue to the suspension of servicing Visa and Mastercard cards in the Russian Federation, payments with cards issued by Russian banks are currently not possible. Air Serbia is working on finding an alternative option for online payments. In the meantime, you can buy tickets from our partner Aviareps AG, by phone +7 (495) 510-25-45 or by e-mail airserbia.psarussia@aviareps.com , as well as at authorized IATA agencies
Russian banks have been connected to the Chinese version of SWIFT. With this switch more and more companies will do the same and I expect some Serbian banks to follow suit in the coming period. This will finally create some competition for SWIFT which became a tool of Western imperialism.
Delete