All markets in the former Yugoslavia are set to surpass pre-pandemic capacity levels during the third quarter of the year, with exception to Slovenia, which will have the slowest recovery rate in Europe together with Belarus, the latter being under European Union sanctions. According to travel and intelligence company OAG, during the July - September quarter, Bosnia and Herzegovina will have 149.7% of seat capacity compared to the same period in 2019. Wizz Air, which has opened a base in Sarajevo and stationed two aircraft in the city, is one of the main contributors to the growth. However, the arrival of a number of foreign carriers, especially from the Gulf, has enabled Bosnia and Herzegovina to have the second fastest recovery rate in Europe behind only Albania. Its traffic surge is not limited just to the capital, with Banja Luka Airport expected to record its busiest year. It should be noted that OAG did not individually assess the Kosovan market during the third quarter. Kosovo has already surpassed its passenger and capacity levels compared to 2019.
During the peak summer months, between July and September, Macedonia will be at 111.7% of 2019 capacity levels or the fifth in Europe, followed straight behind by Montenegro at 110.8%. The number of departing seats from the Serbian market will reach 110.4% during the third quarter, positioning itself as the seventh fastest recovering market on the continent. Croatia’s capacity levels will be slightly up on three years ago, at 102%. It has positioned itself as the eleventh fastest recovering market in Europe. All of the existing data is subject to change.
The Slovenian market, still struggling from the collapse of Adria Airways in 2019, will continue to hold the title of being among the slowest recovering markets in Europe. Its capacity levels during the third quarter will only reach 54.7% of 2019 levels, only ahead of Belarus, which, compared to three years ago, is under European Union sanctions, with its carriers unable to fly to any European market with exception to Turkey and Russia. Capacity levels in Slovenia compared to two years ago will be lower than both Russia and Ukraine, although the latter is still engulfed in war and airlines are likely to cancel their planned operations in the coming weeks and months. Despite the lacklustre performance, the head of Ljubljana Airport, Babett Stapel, said last month, “This year we will have 104% more passengers than last year, but still 49% less than in 2019. However, the number of travellers will double, so passenger traffic is recovering. We're going in the right direction. I do not expect for us to achieve the results from 2019 next year. I wish we could, but due to high fuel prices, war and uncertainty, I estimate that we will reach pre-pandemic levels in 2026, that is, we will handle 1.8 million or 1.9 million passengers”.
Now to see if all those seats can actually be filled.
ReplyDelete+ 1000
DeleteI think demand will be softer than expected due to rising inflation and reduced economic activity across the EU. I think May numbers should be interesting as they will inform us of what to expect in the coming months.
DeleteI'm just sad for Slovenia
ReplyDeleteSarajevo Airport projection for the rest of the year
ReplyDeleteMAY 120.000
JUN 170.000
JUL 210.000
AUG 210.000
SEP 165.000
OCT 120.000
NOV 90.000
DEC 90.000
2022 total number of PAX 1.446.878
Very good result
DeleteIt will be interesting to see if Sarajevo will stay ahead of Podgorica this year. Podgorica is catching up quickly and there isn't a big difference between them now.
DeleteHow many pax does Podgorica have currently?
Delete230,314
DeleteYes, very close to SJJ. It had 271.978
DeleteGood work by most. Congratulations
ReplyDeleteLJU is actually at number 1, at being the worst. Bravo Fraport and Slovenia!
ReplyDeleteDon't forget mbx ;) but yeah I agree
DeleteImagine being as bad as a country that is currently under international sanctions. Congratulations to Slovenia and LJU for having no vision despite being in a relatively wealthy market, having a decent catchment area and a local population that actually travels a lot.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I don't think LJU will ever be relevant again. Their best chance at relevance was JP and they let that go. I think their maximum will be around 1.5 million per year.
+1000000 can't agree more.
DeleteIt's true. I doubt LJU will reach the pre-pandemic number ie Adria numbers ever again.
DeleteI agree, and fraport doesn't say anything to gouverment that we need based airline for our needs.
DeleteUntil fraport doesn't care, gouverment won't either so I don't know what we were thinking when we first sold the airport and than to a fraport who is stupid as ****
Now wait for the Fraport bots: Slovenians are the only people in Europe who use cars, Slovenians are the only people in Europe that use neighbouring airports, Slovenia is the only country in Europe that has no diaspora, Slovenia is the only country in Europe that had Covid restrictions and endless excuses.
DeleteYou can't expect to have flights to Paris and Rome if you live in 2 mil country! 😃
DeleteDon't forget the "no tourism" excuse, or that everyone comes to Slovenia by cars, even Americans, Japanese, Australians... Bravo Fraport fanboys!
DeleteSo the only way to improve LJUs numbers is to have a subsidized national airline?
DeleteFraport will do nothing so yes. It also seems you are one of those "worried taxpayers" for mentioning "subsidized"
DeleteHow much should we subsidize a new national airline?
DeleteIn my opinion Slovenia doesn't need a new national carrier. What it needs is to figure out what it wants from its aviation sector. Right now it seems like they don't have a clue and they are letting the market sort itself out which isn't really working in their favor.
DeleteStart by making sure LJU is connected to all major airports/hubs and then take it from there. Look where Slovenes are travelling to and then start securing non-stop flights to those destinations. Greece is a popular destination from what I know. Get Aegean to restore ATH-LJU and to offer connections to the islands as well as the rest of their network.
Since Ryanair is in Zagreb then encourage Wizz Air to introduce new destinations. That would be a good first move in stopping the passenger leakage they are currently experiencing.
Of course, as a Serb I would love for them to encourage JU to introduce more flights. At least double daily in winter and 21 weekly in summer.
I agree, LJU has seen the best immprovement of cargo from all exyu airports so maybe we should make LJU more in cargo way.
DeleteAnd beside that have immportant connections to hubs or even better if we get a national airline wich can beside pax operations have cargo planes than as well.
So I do agree with you!
If the governments would be smart, croatia and slovenia would open an airline similar to SAS or Air Baltic. We all know that Croatia is nearing the end. Rent a few e90s, atrs, a319/320 and a widebody and you could have quite a success story
ReplyDeleteThat would never work because they couldn't agree on where the HQ will be located.
DeletePut it on "noones land" at the border :p
DeleteHaha that might actually work as they could rip off the taxpayers with travel expenses.
DeleteThere is higher chance of JU and OU merging than this happening,and the last one is likely as being eaten by a dinosaur.
DeleteSo you get the point
Maybe in 10-30 years we will have a common carrier till 90s politicians die out.
*maybe in 10-30 yeras when all the 90s politicians die out.
Delete-autocorrect error
BEG would be even higher if JU restored its pre-pandemic regional frequencies. For example TIA is down from 14 to 10/11 weekly, SKG from 14 to 4, ATH from 14 to 8 and so on.
ReplyDeleteWell there is probably still less demand for certain destinations.
DeleteAlso do keep in mind JU has lost a chunk of Russian transfers as much fewer of them will be flying this summer and many of them transferred through BEG via Aeroflot flights.
DeleteKRR and ROV didn't really connect onto regional flights so they were not affected.
DeleteSVO and LED were the only ones that might see a drop so it isn't a big loss for regional flights. I think OS hurt them more.
"Might see a drop" it's more like colossal plunge.
Delete@09,31
DeleteJU never had 14 pw to TIA. The most they had was in winter 2019/2020 when it was boosted to 10-11pw when JP collapsed.
SKG frequencies are disappointing. The amount of Serbs that travel there and they can't do better. And Greeks love visiting Belgrade. 180€ with no luggage for a flight barely lasting 1 hour shows exactly why they have soo few flights.
I think JU lost the battle for BEG-ATH to Aegean. I read elsewhere that today their A321 to Belgrade was 90% full. Other days they operate with the A320 that is larger than JU's A319.
DeleteYou can't know that. They operate much fewer flights than Air Serbia so no they didn't win anything. This week is an exception due to Final 4.
Delete@18,17
DeleteJU and A3 cooperate on the route. A3 codeshares on several JU routes ex BEG, as does JU on A3 routes ex ATH. JU still has the higher frequencies.
A3 threw quite a number of flights the past week to BEG due to the Final Four championships, which finished last night. There were soo many Greeks in Belgrade as Olympiacos played.
Aircraft size doesn't really matter as well when judging loads. I had a flight with them a couple years back in late June on an A320 ATH-BEG that was just over half load.
Who said I was talking about this week? Aegean had 5 weekly before covid and now they are at 4.
DeleteJU had 14 and are at what now, 8?
Aegean is a commercially run airline and they are not adding flights for the fun of it. Also they are in Belgrade because of the demand, not because of JU's rather modest network and frequencies.
They are doimg so well in Belgrade that in 10 years of operations they have added 1 flight.
DeleteDon't forget that when A3 first launched BEG it was on the Avro. Then we got OA back and then after the merger the route was taken over by A3's Q400. Now the route is operated by their A320.
DeleteSince then the airline has added both seats and frequencies. They have been experiencing steady growth over the past 10 years. I do agree with what some are writing on here. Aegean has definitely become more aggressive in BEG since covid hit. Don't forget that they are at 4 weekly despite planning on introducing scheduled flights to both Rhodes and Heraklion from BEG. Two destinations that surely had a lot of transfer passengers from BEG via ATH.
I do not know why JU has been so slow to restore Athens to pre-covid levels. I believe loads are there so maybe crew/fleet shortages are to blame or the fact that JU has not yet fully restored its network so connections are not possible every day. There aren't many destinations in their network that are served on an, at least, daily basis.
JU did really well right after covid. However, it seems that since then they have lost some steam in rebuilding their network. Hopefully their June expansion will provide them with extra passengers they so desperately need.
Let's not forget that Aegean is much larger than Air Serbia. A3/OA currently operate a fleet of 65 aircraft. With this fleet they can achieve something JU can't with what they have now: create volume.
DeleteHopefully JU's fleet grows to at least 30 aircraft as then they could achieve the same.
Those two airlines are codesharing in ATH -BEG route .So it is good for them to have a good load factor ! They do not care who ,as long as this partnership brings them money ! So there is no meaning for them who has the most frequencies or the most airplanes ! Just the money flow !
DeleteHmm as someone who regularly flies via ATH I can tell you that the number of frequencies matters since the codeshare is more or less useless. It's extremely overpriced and it is rarely competitive (JU-A3 combo) compared to what Aegean offers on its own metal or what other airlines are offering via their hubs.
DeletePeople keep on writing how JU and A3 are partners and whatnot but I just don't see it. Not only is Aegean positioning itself on the BEG-ATH market but they have also entered JU's lucrative charter market to the Greek islands. From what I know JU doesn't have its code on Aegean's HER and RHO flights to/from BEG.
Most? All except Slovenia :D. No worries, dancing troll will take care of it.
ReplyDeleteWeren't we told we shouldn't compare apples and pares when it comes to Slovenia's recovery? Seems like we can only compare ourselves to Belarus.
ReplyDelete+1
DeleteWow a real shame for Ljubljana
ReplyDeleteNumber seem to be ahead of global trends.
ReplyDelete** numbers
DeleteWhile LJU is far below of global trends.
DeleteBEG seems to be on fire today. 92 commercial departures, including TK with A330.
ReplyDeleteGood job. May will be busy.
DeletePlus Mahan this morning with A310.
DeleteHow many airport in ex-Yu are already above pre-Covid levels?
ReplyDeleteAs far as I know: Pristina, Sarajevo, Nis and Banja Luka are above 2019 levels.
DeleteOh and Podgorica too.
DeleteRaynair needs to open a base in Ljubljana. Routes that Raynair can begin with are EIN,BCN, ATH,FCO,DMN and some other destanations in the mediterranean. A other airport that has similair problems like LJU is BTS. They had -82% in 2020. Slovakia also has a small diaspora and with the not really practical geographical position of Bratislava and lcc markets like VIE and BUD neirby its also difficult for them. They should have taken action before Raynair openend a base in ZAG because now thats also gonna be difficult.
ReplyDeletePerhaps Easy or Wizz.
DeleteDuring the period 01-24 of May this year, Sarajevo airport had 103.000 passengers. By the end of the month, we can expect at least 120.000 passengers.
ReplyDelete