Air Serbia plans to introduce additional destinations in China once strict Covid-19 related measures and restrictions are lifted, with a possibility for the carrier to add its third wide-body aircraft as these limitations are eased. The airline plans to enter the Chinese market this October with a one weekly service to Tianjin, which is also limited frequency-wise by pandemic measures. "We have much bigger plans once Covid restrictions are lifted in China. We want to fly to Beijing and Shanghai in the future. These destinations so far are restricted by Covid regulations”, Air Serbia's CEO, Jiri Marek, told "Aviation Week". Hainan Airlines introduced a one weekly service from the Chinese capital to Belgrade last month, which is likely to grow to two per week from September or October, if Covid circumstances permit. Due to strict regulations, Hainan Airlines must make a stop in Dalian on the inbound service, before proceeding to Beijing.
Tianjin will become Air Serbia's first destination in China as it is unlikely the country will lift its travel rules and restrictions by October. Pursing a zero Covid strategy, China currently limits frequencies, destinations and caps cabin occupancy on flights as part of its measures to combat the virus. However, Mr Marek noted that Tianjin might remain in the network in the future. “The market is quite volatile and dynamic, you have to be flexible”, the CEO said. The port city of Tianjin, which is Beijing's main maritime gateway, has a population of 13.9 million people. It is the fourth most populous city in China and the twentieth in the world. It is also one of China’s largest trade hubs and is linked by a thirty-minute train journey to the country’s capital.
The current geo-political situation could benefit Air Serbia on its flights to China, as it is one of the few European carriers that is not restricted from overflying the vast Russian airspace. A lot of traffic flow between China and Europe is currently limited, Mr Marek said, and some routes remain complicated regarding closed airspaces over certain countries in the direction to Asia. “The geographical position of Belgrade opens new opportunities and route alternatives to Asia. Air Serbia is ready to explore them”, Mr Marek added. During the pre-pandemic 2019, China was the largest long haul market from Serbia based on OAG data, just outperforming the United States, which was followed by Canada. Shanghai and Beijing were Belgrade Airport’s two busiest unserved routes in 2019.
I expected Tianjin will only be a temporary move. Although I don’t think it’s a bad idea at all. It’s a huge city, Beijing’s main port, very well connected to Beijing and not many airlines offering flights to Europe. Could work.
ReplyDeleteI think they plan to see how successful it will be. That’s why they say it might stay in the network.
DeleteJust FYI - I live in Vancouver. Vancouver is listed as one of the best places in the world to live and it has to do a lot because of Chinese investment in real estate. The Canadian government issued a new measure a few months ago freezing the purchase of property by foreigners for 2 years. China's relationship with Canada is at an all time low. For the last few months the Canadian economy is getting worse and property values have dropped. A significant wave of people moved back to the Ex-Yu after selling their places in Vancouver.
DeleteIf even a tiny fraction of those Chinese property investors shift to Belgrade it will have an incredible effect on the economy - one that will more than pay off the cost of BUYING 10 A330s, kamali renting one.
How exactly will it be incredible for the economy? By driving up property prices without any productive purpose.
Delete"How exactly will it be incredible for the economy? By driving up property prices without any productive purpose."
Delete#1 Land transfer taxes in the hundreds of millions of dollars is just one example.
#2 The rise in property prices means that local citizens sell their properties for lots of money, which they can either invest in property or other ways. Over 85% of the owners of property in Serbia [and] many parts of the Ex-Yu do not have mortgages, so the sale of expensive properties allows them to buy several properties, with a down payment to the banks, and rent them out to foreigners. That extra money means they have more money to fly on JU to exotic destinations on the A330.
#3 The low birth rate in the region means that many people have their own properties but what they inherited from grandparents. It's customary for many in the Ex-Yu to buy their children an apartment years in advance. So the problem experienced in the West by the younger generation will not be as pronounced.
I have also lived in Vancouver for the past 27 years. Up until Covid, I counted only 3 families that ever left Vancouver to move back to Belgrade. The most recent ones mostly had to do with refusing vaccination and losing jobs in public sector.
DeleteI agree that relationship between Canada and China is not perfect at the moment, but I am not sure if it would be good for Serbia to deepen ties with China economically. They may already be at the level which will put us into difficult depth situation.
On another subject, everyone that has recently flown between Vancouver and Europe experienced absolutely packed planes. Air Canada keeps adding new routes, the last two being direct flights to Dublin and Zurich. Perhaps one day we can see service to Vancouver from Nikola Tesla, but likely eith a canadian airline.
Personally I don't see BEG-YVR ever happening. If AC launches BEG then they will need this relatively small market to feed their YYZ-BEG flights. Air Canada might be adding more flights but these are mostly to western Europe.
DeleteB6 which has an interline with JU recently launched JFK-YVR. Would be cool if JU offered this connection.
"#1 Land transfer taxes in the hundreds of millions of dollars is just one example."
DeleteMore money for politicians to drain out of the system. While additional tax revenue is certainly a positive overall its the tradeoff I am slightly more concerned about.
"#2 The rise in property prices means that local citizens sell their properties for lots of money, which they can either invest in property or other ways. Over 85% of the owners of property in Serbia [and] many parts of the Ex-Yu do not have mortgages, so the sale of expensive properties allows them to buy several properties, with a down payment to the banks, and rent them out to foreigners. That extra money means they have more money to fly on JU to exotic destinations on the A330."
I don't have a mortgage on my house in the village either, as I assume most other people do not either. I would be curious to see the breakdown of this in cities (aka where the majority of local people and your hypothetical Chinese investors will want to live). An influx of foreign money will push prices of property in places where people want to live out of the means of the ordinary people (it already is very expensive in relative terms). I don't think you can spin this into a positive through this perspective.
#3 The low birth rate in the region means that many people have their own properties but what they inherited from grandparents. It's customary for many in the Ex-Yu to buy their children an apartment years in advance. So the problem experienced in the West by the younger generation will not be as pronounced.
While true, it also might vary by location. Our population decline is clearly not evenly distributed between urban vs rural locations. It will be more pronounced in cities, where based on current trends, is where most people will want to live in.
If next summer they start Beijing, Shanghai, keep Tianjin plus launch Chicago, New York goes daily and use wide body on popular European routes then we will definitely see a third A330 next summer season. I don’t think it’s possible with two A330s? Right?
ReplyDeleteHopefully true dat.
DeleteSo we will have two airlines flying to Beijing in the future? Air Serbia and Hainan?
ReplyDeleteYes
DeleteThere might be three, there were reports that Air China applied for PVG-BEG.
DeletePVG is Shanghai, not Beijing.
DeleteYes Air China applied for Shanghai, not Beijing
DeleteThose with brains fly to Shanghai, its the stupid ones that fly to Tianjin or to Beijing where they have competition .
DeleteThose who want to fly to China will fly where China wants them to fly. It's not like US where you can pick Chicago or Atlanta or EU where you can start flights tomorrow. No sir, there's no that much freedom in China, even Air Serbia experienced it.
DeleteIt’s good that they will start China soon and use the current opportunities of being basically the only airline able to fly over Russia, cutting down on travel time compared to other European airlines and making themselves more competitive.
ReplyDeleteWow. Anyone care to explain the sudden huge expansion by Air Serbia on pretty much all fronts? Fleet expansion, long haul network expansion, short haul network expansion, announced regional network expansion. I mean I’m really happy about it but just wonder how it all suddenly came together.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to think it's market conditions, but probably has more to do with government support financially and politically.
DeleteIt is market conditions, you need volume to survive as a small carrier from a country with limited O&D demand. Since there isn't a lot of it you have to create it for yourself (transfers).
DeleteAnd to think people were criticising them just a month ago for not expanding long haul.
ReplyDeleteThe nerve of some people.
DeleteGood move. Belgrade – Shanghai/Beijing can be sustained based on just P2P pax (pre Covid). With a big transfer network to support it, these will be even more successful.
ReplyDeleteDon’t forget there will also be a lot of cargo on these Chinese flights.
DeleteIt could all work out if regional flights are well timed.
DeleteThere will be P2P but also huge amount of transfers. Bear im mind that China has very limited number of flights to Europe and Chinese are EAGER to start travelling again. So there will be a lot of tourist transfers too. Plus business transfers
DeleteA lot of airlines flying to BEG will have to start sourcing passengers from elsewhere. I particularly think Qatar, Turkish and KLM could be impacted by Air Serbia starting China. All of them currently have a lot of transfers from China.
ReplyDeleteMahan is the first causality.
Deletehttps://www.exyuaviation.com/2022/07/mahan-air-ends-belgrade-service.html
DeleteI think QR is next
DeleteWell they are already reducing flights from August and they are only saved in winter by football demand. I think in the end they will keep BEG as 3 weekly in summer only.
DeleteQatar Airways is full on every single flight at the moment and not with Chinese passengers. Stop talking nonsense.
DeleteQR stayed committed to the market during Covid crisis so they're definitely my airline of choice.
DeleteQR has been overbooked on each and every single flight to Belgrade for the past 18 days. QR has a fleet shortage at the moment and can't upgrade aircraft. The frequency reduction in August was pre planned since the February summer timetable was filed. Like someone said so talking nonsense
DeleteQatari will run from Air Serbia… this happend to be a serious air forum. Air Serbia needs to push with new routes as a part of Serbia’s obligation towars Vinci, the airport operator. However, one thing is flying one intercontinental destination with one plane and something else is adding big aircraft on a such a pace. They will need a lot of luck, and much more qualified workforce at all levels to be able to handle this ambitious plans.
DeleteSerbia does not have obligations to Vinci, apart from not letting INI go wild for the first 8 years.
DeleteWe'll read about that in those never published parts of contract one day. Till then I presume that Serbia does have obligations to Vinci.
DeleteFrom what I know the only obligation is that INI can't grow at BEG's expense. Given how well BEG is performing I don't think Vinci will care. There is a reason why the French are already working on C15-18, they are optimistic about the market's potential.
DeleteVery nice. Well done JU.
ReplyDeleteAir Serbia’s blessing is that Aeroflot can no longer fly to BEG. They were the main transfer airline for Chinese passengers.
ReplyDelete+1
DeleteOn the same way VIE and BUD were blessed JAT was falling apart during war in Yugoslavia.
DeleteWell, Vinci did say that they aim for BEG to reach 15 million at some point. Their goal seems to be elevating BEG to the same class as BUD and OTP. Remains to be seen how successful they are going to be.
DeleteWaiting for “where is Toronto” comment.
ReplyDeleteWill happen in a few hours.
DeleteHope they start YYZ.. they can find 2 weekly rotations per week with 3 planes.
DeleteThere!! Happy?
Toronto has a large Chinatown. Does that help?
DeleteChinatown doesn't count. Air Serbia has no plans to serve Toronto.
DeleteI heard that flights to Canada will happen as soon as Justin's regime is overthrown. Just kidding, that will never happen. Maybe when Canada lifts the mandatory vax requirement for foreigners or adds Sputnik to its list of approved vaccines there will be increased interest. Also, maybe lifting visas for Serbian travelers would help a lot.
Delete@09,05
DeleteDefinitely! China Town = Chinese passengers :)
I think JU will definitely launch YYZ. I think it's a question of it being either with the 3rd or 4th A332. I don't see JU ignoring this market.
They won't. Priority is on ORD, expansion at JFK and China. That will keep Air Serbia busy for years. YYZ-BEG will go to one of airlines from Canada.
DeleteWell, AC complained about two weekly frequencies as they don't think that's enough. Would be hilarious if Westjet jumps in and launches YYZ-BEG. lol
DeleteIs there any indication when China might ease these Covid restrictions which seem really ludicrous.
ReplyDeleteInterestingly Marek mentions other possibilities in Asia. Are they looking at other markets in Asia too?
ReplyDeleteI would love to see AS follow LOT and connect BEG to Seoul, Tokyo, Bangkok, Singapore.
DeleteHope their fares will be competitive.
ReplyDeleteFor transfers they are going to be competitive, for O&D I don't think so. It will be similar situation liek JFK
DeleteI like the early release of the main article today. Great for me being from Canada. Don't have to wait until 3 in the morning.
ReplyDeleteWhen could we potentially expect the third A330?
ReplyDeleteThe third A330 was planned for WS23 and the fourth for SS24
DeleteIn all seriousness with three planes they could easily fly to YYZ twice per week?
ReplyDeleteThey could but they don't want to. It will have to be airline from Canada.
DeleteПрво скочи па реци хоп.
ReplyDeleteMolim te nemoj takve stvari govoriti, to nije popularno na ovom portalu. I nije poželjno tražiti rezultate poslovanja Air Serbia u prvom polugodištu 2022, da vidimo koliko ta Aleksandra igračka košta porezne obveznike u Srbiji. Idemo radije brijati o trećem, četvrtom, a Boga mi i petom A330, koji će za par godina biti A350!
DeleteKomsija ne mogu prepisati diazepam ali makar neki caj za smirenje?
DeleteLjubomora i zavist nisu dobri za zdravlje. Aleksandra ne volim ali njegova igracka je u kratkom vremenu postala ozbiljan europski igrac docim je Kradezeova igracka i bankomat jad i bijeda a kosta hrvatske porezne obveznike vise, i to da bi punila avione Lufthansi
DeleteAre they only looking at A330? What about A350s and 787s?
ReplyDeleteToo dense, and too expensive.
Deletethey already have crew trained for the a330. changing plane types would require additional training and costs
DeleteDo you think that for the 3rd A330 a A333 could be an option for better booked flights?
DeleteLike someone previously memtioned here, A333 has a shorter range than the A332 due to more space for pax and cargo.
DeleteIt would be interesting if someone could give us the range of A333 and to see if it fits in JU's planned Intercontinental network
A333 range is 11,300km
DeleteA333 dont have central wing tank like a332
DeleteFantastična vest. Izgleda ćemo sledećeg leta JFK videti i više od jednom dnevno pojedinim danima.Bilo bi lepo da treći A330 vidimo sledećeg leta kda će i BG aerodrom biti spreman da opsluži 3 širokotrupca u isto vreme.Biće to lepa slika.
ReplyDeleteA i nadam se da će Air Transat doći iz Toronta.
DeleteAko se JU ne predomisli.
DeleteJFK ce sledece godine ici 8 puta nedeljno, to jest jedan dan ce ici dva leta. I mala ispravka, BEG moze vec sad da opsluzi 5 sirokotrupaca odjednom. To jest oko 30 long haul letova dnevno (30 arrivals+30 departures sa 3 sata turnaround-om).
DeletePraktično da ali dok se ne završi rekonsrukcija unutar terminala jako teško. I sada je popriličan haos a zamislite parkirana 3 A330 i gomilu transfernih putnika.Mislim da će za sledeće leto aerodrom biti u potpunosti spreman.
DeletePa nece bas sva 3 u isto vreme biti na aerodromu. A i da budu nije to mnogo. Moze Beograd i mnogo vise od toga trenutno opsluziti.
DeleteИ да иду следеће године у исто време неће бити проблем јер се зграда аеродрома шири. Дакле биће места за све.
DeleteThat Vinci rendering of BEG with a few JU wide-bodies is coming to realization. Great work JU and BEG!
ReplyDeleteIf they get that 3rd wide-body, it is a must to get more ATRs to strengthen Balkan routes for better connectivity. You can not fill-up 3 A330s on a daily basis if you do not have daily or even two daily flights to ex-yu capitals.
ReplyDeleteThey'll need more than Balkan and more than ATR for their expansion.
DeleteWe hope that MBX could be added for this matter.
DeleteAt that point, there should be a couple ATR routes permanently on the A319 freeing up the ATR's for other routes.
DeleteTIA could easily be 14 pw with with a mix of ATR and A319, SKP and SJJ on the A319 at midday.
This could then free up the ATR's for routes such as OHD, OMO and BNX.
JU also want more A320's as the lease rates are more favorable which will also free up A319's.
SJJ cannot have a midnight flight due to the airports curfew, which I think it starts at 23h
DeleteThat shit is still in place?
Delete@15,38
DeleteI wrote midday, not midnight.
SJJ could easily operate in the morning and evening waves.
Croatia Airlines had all conditions and prerequisites to start a decade ago, or even before, what Air Serbia is doing now. They missed the opportunity big time, as many others. So once again, shame on you Croatia Airlines, and Bravo Air Serbia! I hope you will bring a lot of Chinese and US tourists, and others, to Croatia, because our "flag carrier"'s World ends in Munich and Frankfurt
ReplyDeleteWell they can bring them to ZAG only as that is the only destination that offers convenient connections. Before covid JU planned DBV at 08.00 every Friday. Those would have connected to JFK in both directions.
DeleteBut I actually dont get how Croatia Airlines and ZAG can just stand there and look at BEG and JU and just do nothing. I travelled from both BEG and ZAG during the past 2 months and while BEG is filled, on the other hand ZAG looks empty and bland. There is barely 1 aircraft at the airport and it just seems sad. This is where I hope that ETF and TradeAir can step in and act as the national carrier. I think that this is the plan for ETF. They plan on expanding their fleet to 7 aircraft and then might even acquire some boeing widebodies.
DeleteCroatia is market where JU stands really well during the season, but off season it can do better. It's not easy competing LH/OU ambitions to transfer people via FRA&MUC but there is more to that on Croatian market. And make the season longer, it's OK to start Pula and Zadar before mid June.
Delete@12.56 ZAG and BEG have similar recovery rate, the emptiness of ZAG maybe comes from huge empty building while BEG is full with works. And maybe you were there during Ryan's cuts. Sure, BEG has much more passengers but overall ZAG numbers don't look bad.
DeleteRecovery rates towards much different numbers. Also, I expect BEG to keep on booming now that JU is in turbo mode. I can't wait for BEG's July numbers, they should be wild.
DeleteI also expect BEG to recover and grow faster in the near future but that still doesn't make ZAG numbers bad looking to anyone who's aware of market size and landscape.
DeleteDon't forget that once the war in Ukraine is over, this could also mean the reopening of the Crimean air space. If that happens JU should profit a lot from it as it would cut flying time to both KRR and ROV by quite a bit. I believe then JU could fit ROV in the overnight wave.
ReplyDeleteBEG-ROV flying time would be cut by some 30 minutes, if not more.
I don't think the Ukraine situation will be resolved before 2024 at the very earliest.
DeleteHonestly, I think it depends what happens this winter. If Europe runs out of gas then they will look for a quick solution.
DeleteThe EU wont run off the gas.
DeleteOut*
DeleteMaybe not the EU as a whole but Germany most likely will:
DeleteAccording to Thomas O’Donnell, an oil and gas expert, the current gas flow is only 20% of capacity, which means Germany will not be able to store enough gas to be used in the winter months.
“We will probably be 30% short of natural gas this winter. It means somebody is not going to have gas and there will be rationing,” he asserted.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/electric-heaters-sell-out-as-germans-prepare-for-possible-winter-gas-crisis/2651267#:~:text=According%20to%20Thomas%20O'Donnell,of%20natural%20gas%20this%20winter.
Great and expected news. And I don't think people in Toronto need worry. By the end of 2023 there will be a direct flight to BEG. It may not be AS, but there will be one. AS is serious about becoming a major actor in Southeastern Europe and with proper planning and an expanded, modern airport, I think ten million passengers on 3-4 years is not out of the question.
ReplyDeleteWidebody expansion bets on China reopening followed by surging demand to Belgrade and the region. What if reopening doesn't go as quickly as planned? What if other EU or ME airlines pick up more of those passengers and cargo than Air Serbia estimates? What if Taiwan crisis escalates? Having three A330 is a far greater risk than just one.
ReplyDeleteWell, there's always a risk and a "what if" for any expansion. Ultimately, it doesn't really matter because the JU business model is unsustainable at the scale they have at the moment. They need to scale things up and that's exactly what they are doing.
DeleteWhat if regional situation escalates, we saw two days ago how little is needed. There are many what-ifs but you have to conduct business in good will.
DeleteYou would be a good fit for OU, An. 14.14. They don't bother with risks and growth.
Delete@An 14:14
DeleteLife is in itself risk so that is only way to live and work is to take a risk. If you dont risk then the safest place is the graveyard. That is how some parts of Western Europe become economically. No risk, no energy, no innovation. Just rent extraction. Do you see malls and apartments build like a plague? That is the symptoms of NO Risk life but rentirie economy
What is the Plan B is this one doesn't work out as expected? With at least two A330 leases it seems Air Serbia would have to expand more on the transatlantic side and use planes for exotic charters during winter.
Delete@An 15:55
DeleteThere is no Plan B.
Try to understand what means Life is a risk. Business is a Risk.
There are no guarantees.
If something changes you act accordingly and move on.
Charters to Exotic desitnations?
Yes, but in reverse. Ex-Yu is exotic destination so all these tourists from East and West should be flown in Ex-Yu airlines.
+100
DeleteexYu is black mirror version of exotic.
DeleteWhy risk ?? They always have the government and the tax payers to cover the losses ! So simple !
DeleteAnon 21.01, you are so wrong. It is exotic in many ways even for other Europeans, not to mention someone coming for far away. And no we don't all have palms and send beaches, but exotic means intriguing different and unknown too, and we are exactly that.
DeleteI must say I am pleasantly surprised at how new CEO is opened to media and telling them about various plans. I don't recall Duncan Neysmith being so talkative :)
ReplyDeleteIt would be nice to see some of them in Serbian media for once.
DeleteThere are quite often reports in Serbian media on them. Medical aid from China, women pilots, Rupic with his talks, etc.
DeleteHaving New York, Shanghai, Beijing, Toronto, Chicago, Seoul and why not Singapore would be perfect for AirSERBIA
ReplyDeleteDa li bi linija za Tokio imala potencijal?
DeleteAnon 21:52
DeleteI think it could get potential with transfers especially to Croatia, the same goes for Seoul since Croatia is no longer served by Korean Air and was always full.
Treba zimi da uspostave letove za Kubu, Dominikanu ili Tajland
Delete^ Havana
ReplyDelete