The Slovenian government recently launched a feasibility study through an expert task force to determine whether it should establish a new national carrier, with its findings to be presented to the cabinet during the summer. It marks the second time in two years that the government has commissioned such an analysis. Slovenia’s Minister for Infrastructure, Alenka Bratušek, said, “My opinion on the matter is not as important as to what these studies will show. Our country has already had one bad experience with its national airline. Not only was it purchased by a catastrophically bad buyer, which led to its bankruptcy, but a few years beforehand, Adria registered huge losses and continued to do so year after year. We had to provide state aid, and, of course, all of this has to be put on the table so that the government knows all the facts when it decides which way to go. But we can hear the voice of the economy, which of course says that Slovenia needs such a carrier back".
In 2021, the Slovenian government launched a similar study to determine whether to establish a new carrier. Its finding pointed in favour of a new airline, but the state’s idea to use means from the European Union’s Covid recovery fund was shot down by the block, after which the government gave up on the idea. Ajda Cuderman, who was the State Secretary at the Ministry for Economy at the time, says the study from two years ago made firm conclusions that the state would benefit from a new national airline. Furthermore, Ms Cuderman claims the Slovenian export and development bank SID was prepared to provide funding for the new carrier. She accuses select people at the ministry for failing to present full details on the airline to EU officials. She adds the study from two years ago is still available and can be found at the ministry.
As the government awaits the findings on whether it should establish a new national airline, it is preparing to provide airline with seventeen million euros over a three-year period to subsidise the launch of new routes from the country. Last month, Slovenia’s Minister for Economic Development and Technology, Matjaž Han, said, “If we subsidise rail and bus passenger transport, we shouldn't be afraid to start our own airline and subsidise it as well. Public transport is much more than economic logic. A new national carrier is being considered, but before we get to that, we cannot stand idly by. That is why we are trying to improve Slovenia’s connectivity by subsidising routes".
Bratusek seems far from confident that the new airline will be launched compared to her pre-election promises.
ReplyDeleteYou should check video where she gave that statement. From what I saw yesterday I am 90% sure that something is already going on in the background.
DeleteWhere can we check the video?
DeleteI don't know if moderator will allow me, but it's on N1info.si
DeleteI'm almost certain there will be no new national airline launched. If they decided to invest 17 million into subsidizing new routes, why would they invest in a flag carrier?
ReplyDeleteHaven't you thought that new national carrier could get most of those subsidies? It's just a way how to push money into carrier and I certainly support that!
DeleteI can easily imagine the scenario where (1) there is not a lot of interest in the spring government incentive call (2) this is used as additional justification that a national airliner is needed (3) when established the national airliner takes most of the unused budget.
Delete17 million subsidising for just one year. It takes a while to establish a new carrrier.
Delete17 millions for 3 years.
DeleteLooking at it now, it was cheaper and easier if the government just gave Adria 50 million 4 years ago and saved the airline.
ReplyDeleteRemember the EU state aid rules. It would likely be determined to be illegal later on.
DeleteAnd 50 million a year after, 80 million in 2022 and another 50 this year. Sure, much cheaper.
DeleteAdria's debt was around 88m EUR, and that was before Covid. Had they not gone bankrupt, there would also be a huge loss made in 2020, 2021 and most likely even 2022 due to the pandemic, especially with their business model before bankruptcy (huge focus on ACMI).
DeleteEven if they decide in favor of a new airline which I doubt it will take at least until summer 2024 for it to launch, at best.
ReplyDeleteNot unless they partner with another airline. Remember several were interested in establishing a new airline. Solinair was one.
DeleteIt is definitely going to be a long road ahead if they decide to establish a new airline. Getting IATA code, sourcing planes, getting a distribution system, staff, planes, slots... Summer 2024 would be doable if they started straight away.
DeleteWhat happened to the banana king as potential partner?
DeleteHe is still producing bananas.
DeleteThis cooperation with Solinair would be the best solution for Slovenia and Slovenians.
DeleteWhy? Do you think we prefer to fly cargo planes? Seriously, a partner with experience in scheduled passenger operations would be much better.
DeleteSolinair has no experience with direct-facing customers, they don't even handle their own cargo sales, but just fly wet lease for DHL.
DeleteThe saga continues.
ReplyDeleteTelevisa presenta
DeleteThe fact that they already have a study and are choosing to waste time, money and resources on another says a lot.
ReplyDeleteWelcome to government bureocracy. No different than anywhere else in the world.
DeleteThey'd better get their act together very soon and hopefully all goes well
DeletePuno se prica i malo radi...
DeleteHave you seen the study? There is a reason why the idea was not taken seriously in Brussels. And the reason is the quality of the study and the way how it was presented.
DeleteFor someone as a outsider, what is the general mood in the government for this idea? Will they go for it?
ReplyDeleteMost of parties are supporting idea (SD & Levica & SAB - which was merged with Svoboda). The biggest one (Svoboda) are not against it, but first they want to see what subsidies will bring. If noting special will come out of subsidies program then I think they will go for it.
DeleteIt's a big political decision, that is for sure.
ReplyDeleteWill the EU allow it though?
DeleteSay they decide to launch an airline, what is going to be the concept? They will compete against Lufthansa group on the most profitable flights to Frankfurt and Munich? They will start unserved routes? They will try to be a new Adria by connecting Balkans to the West?
ReplyDeleteGood question
DeleteThey wouldn't compete against Lufthansa group. There would be more than enough space for the new airline to launch flights like Frankfurt and Munich since the routes are underserved.
DeleteAnd why LH did not start FRA/MUC when JP was there? They are full and very profitable now as they are only one departing in the morning (except 3 day AF), but what happens when you have 5 additional departures to EU hubs (ZRH / BRU / VIE / CPH / AMS)? It change situation completely and I believe that LH group would be for cooperation as they had with JP in the past.
DeleteThere's simply no market for many of the routes, including most of the Balkan.
DeleteI agree that for most of the Balkan there isn't enough demand, but certainly is for most unserved capitals (PRN / TIA / SKP / SJJ / TGD).
DeleteThere is a sustainable P2P demand for PRN and SKP, but not for TIA, SJJ and TGD.
DeleteHave you seen TIA figures lately?
DeleteYes, I have seen figures of pax demand from LJU to TIA, back in 2018 and also now. There is very weak P2P demand from LJU to TIA. Slovenia is not Switzerland.
DeleteI believe that a nice walkthrough Ljubljana will change your mind. Albanians are everywhere! Of course it's not so strong as in Switzerland but still I don't see any issues to fulfill one flight per day. Not to forget that TIA is also known as tourist destination + transfers..More then enough demand.
DeleteBased on historical and O&D figures those people are mostly generating PRN and SKP demand.
DeleteMore then TIA of course, but there are still a lot of Albanians living in Slovenia, and they are not in small numbers. I believe that TIA was even best performing Balkan route within JP schedule.
DeleteWhat Albanians are living in Slovenia? Only from Kosovo
DeleteMost of the Albanians living in Slovenia are actually from Macedonia, and then from Kosovo. I met many of them, none from Albania.
DeleteReally hope it happens!
ReplyDeleteSlovenia needs this.
ReplyDeleteWould be nice to have an airline based in Slovenia.
DeleteTrue, but somehow foreign airlines are not interested in it. Now we need Air Slovenia!
DeleteAir Slovenia. It has a ring to it. I feel like Slovenia can attract more people if it was set up more like a vacation airline. Bringing in more tourism.
DeleteAdira 2.0 incoming.
ReplyDeleteAdria never dies.
DeleteIf they decide to launch a new national airline I wonder if they will buy back the Adria brand. It was bought by some investor from the UAE.
DeleteThe brand is dead. Why waste money?
DeleteLet's say Adria is relaunched, which routes could be started from LJU?
ReplyDeleteMorning/evening flights to EU hubs, mid rotation to Balkan destinations.
DeleteGood luck.
ReplyDeleteIt would be great to have a local airline back in business
ReplyDeleteIf the government is now willing to create a new airline, why did it give up on Adria? Why didn't it bail it out?
DeleteAdria bailout would be more expensive. Around 100m just to cover all the debts.
DeleteIf launched correctly I think it could be successful.
ReplyDeleteThe government has tried to give money to foreign airlines and it didn't produce fantastic results. Now it is time to try and get a national carrier to start flights.
ReplyDeleteIf there is a demand Slovenia should support Slovenian air company and not foreign
ReplyDeleteNow it's just a question of who will prevail.
ReplyDeleteI doubt the government will choose this option in the end. It is more expensive then giving subsidies for foreigners.
ReplyDeleteWe can see in the yearly results what is the outcome of relying on foreign carriers. Slovenia desperately needs it's own national carrier.
DeleteIs it more expensive? Now we are wasting millions and in return we get peanuts. With national carrier we will spend millions as well but in return we will have excellent connectivity!
DeleteTaken into account all costs and benefits, a national airliner is probably cheaper solution compared to the planned incentives (if given to foreign airliners).
DeleteThis is the best chance for locals to get new employment opportunities. So I really hope they agree to provide some funds to set up an airline.
ReplyDeleteSlovenia is a beautiful country and they deserve to have good national air carrier connecting Ljubljana but also Maribor to the other European cities.
ReplyDeleteThis is the first time after Oct 2019 that I actually think it's going ahead. Let's see what they'll do... Just please don't bring back MRJ900s
ReplyDelete+1
DeleteWhy not MRJ900?
DeleteIf it didn't work before, why would it now? Go for a mix of atrs and embraers at the start and then up it up with a few a320s
DeleteThree different types of aircraft for maximum profitability :)
DeleteMRJ is cancelled as a project.
DeleteMitsubishi bought CRJ and renamed it to MRJ
DeleteNo they didn't. They just added ''Mitsubishi'' in front of the CRJ. Still, no one calls it like that
DeleteDoes anyone know when the government's subsidy plan for airlines will be sent to EU? They need to approve it.
ReplyDeleteThey said they would submit it to the EU asap.
DeleteIt's already submitted, but not approved yet.
DeleteI hope it materializes.
ReplyDeleteI doubt a new airline could be profitable, at least in first few year, but that carrier can bring so much to Slovenian economy that it's loss is drop in the ocean compared to all other benefits.
ReplyDelete+1000%
DeleteIf they go for it, please bring in a professional management. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteThey should do anything possible, head hunter on the highest level, maybe even diplomatic activity, secret services, anything, just to get Jasmin to the CEO position. Success guaranteed 😃
DeleteObsessing for a change?
DeleteIt was very easy to likvidate (ok, not so, thay had to hire german "specialists" to do that), but now we see, how is hard to make new one.
ReplyDeleteIt will only work as a money losing venture.
ReplyDeleteWe are losing it much more now!
DeleteEx-Yu area is too small and too poor for all these micro national airlines.
ReplyDeleteSo we (in Slovenia) should simply accept that and start travel with horses again?
DeleteYap, stable boy.
DeleteUnfortunately (for you) this won't happen and national carrier will be established :) yihaaa
DeleteHope they set up the new company on some healthy foundations and I wish it much luck in the future.
ReplyDeleteI love how people are shortsighted; even if airline is losing money, it would bring MUCH MORE to overall economy; From turists to business
ReplyDeleteHope it happens! Makes much more sense than paying foreign airlines to fly out of LJU. This way, the state can collect taxes from the company and the employees.
ReplyDelete+1
DeleteWhat was the point of closing Adria then? Better to have given money and let the company stay afloat
ReplyDeleteBecause they thought that after JP demise foreign airlines will fights to step in Slovenia market and they can see that nothing has happened for almost 4 years.
DeleteMeanwhile they removed the last symbol of Adria a few days ago. The Adria sign was taken off from the bus station in the city :(
ReplyDeleteYU 2.76mil. pax in 2022.
ReplyDeleteSerbia is a country of 6.6 mil citizens
22 Aircraft in fleet.
OU 2.17mil. pax. in 2019
Croatia has 3.87 mil.citizens
13 Aircraft in fleet.
Air Montenegro 325 000 pax. till 4th November 2022
Montenegro has 620 000 citizens.
2 Aircraft in Fleet.
Slovenia (I would also say Macedonia) both countries with 2 Mil. citizens, if they are ready to experiment and/or invest would probably be able to maintain 4-6 aircraft fleet (A220/A320 E170-195).
What would you create?
Ne treba biti puno pametan, po svemu viđenom sigurno vredi stara poslovica, uzdaj se use I u svoje kljuse.
ReplyDeleteSo those subsidies are intended to finance the foreing airlines and improve connectivity until Slo government decides and launches a new national carrier ( if they will of course) I mean if they succeed with this and lauch a new carrier this would be great but there is a lot of if’s in this. And it seems like Slo government has a lot of money as they are splashing it like nothing.
ReplyDeleteIt's time for her to wash what she messed up. Who's the group of experts?
ReplyDeleteIt was a catastrophically bad buyer of a company, chosen by a corrupt state property regulator, which had a decade-long history of nepotism.
ReplyDeleteWhy is Bosnia not establishing a new airline????
ReplyDelete