Zagreb with long-haul aspirations but key distant markets still unserved

Zagreb Airport is well positioned to expand its long-haul network but still lacks services to its three key distant markets based on indirect traffic flow. Although the majority of its long-haul demand is concentrated in the summer months and stems from leisure travellers, the airport has proven it can sustain seasonal operations from markets such as Canada (served by Air Transat), and South Korea (served by T’Way Air as of this year). With an increasing number of low cost carriers operating long-haul flights, particularly from Asia, more opportunities are becoming available. Zagreb Airport previously set 2025 as a target year for the restoration its long-haul network after the pandemic. “Zagreb Airport had a notable number of passengers from the Far East, Australia, and North America. The return of these flights will depend on Covid restrictions. We expect the gradual resumption of these services by 2025”, the airport previously said.

The United States, Japan and China hold the most potential on the long-haul front for Zagreb Airport. Despite favourable circumstances, such as the US visa waiver for Croatian citizens, as well as the success of United Air Lines on its seasonal flights to Dubrovnik, services between Zagreb and the States are yet to be established, with New York still the airport’s busiest unserved long-haul route. With Croatia’s national carrier having ruled out the introduction of long-haul services in the short-term, the airport will have to rely on foreign airlines to commence operations from far-away markets. “We are in constant contact with carriers across the world to negotiate and reach an agreement to increase airport traffic. The US market is no exception. We are working on the establishment of nonstop flights between the United States and Zagreb. However, ultimately, whether these services will be introduced depends on the commercial decision of the individual carrier”, Zagreb Airport said.

The Japanese market also holds potential, with both Tokyo and Osaka seeing high volumes of indirect travellers. Croatia and Japan signed an Air Service Agreement in 2023 following five years of negotiations. The Japanese Ministry for Foreign Affairs said, “Considering the possibility and forecasts, there is sufficient air traffic demand for scheduled air services between Japan and the Republic of Croatia in the future". Despite Zagreb being the main entry point for Japanese tourists visiting Croatia, the majority head onwards to Dubrovnik. Prior to the pandemic, Japan's largest airline, All Nippon Airways (ANA), operated summer charters from several cities to Dubrovnik. Previously, Zagreb also boasted charters from Tokyo. During those years, Croatia saw a notable increase in Japanese arrivals compared to those years charter flights from Japan were operating at a reduced rate.

China also remains an important market, with Croatia recording a significant increase in tourists from the country. By August 21, 96.700 Chinese tourists visited Croatia in 2024, an increase of 93% year-on-year. Shanghai is Zagreb’s busiest unserved destination in China, followed by Beijing. Chinese carriers have been expanding rapidly across Europe this year, buoyed by the inability of their European rivals to profitably serve the Chinese market as a result of airspace restrictions across Russia. Chinese carriers have established flights to significantly smaller markets than that of Croatia this year, including Luxembourg. "We are attempting to reach an agreement over nonstop flights between Zagreb, Beijing and Shanghai. Croatia has been recognised by Chinese tourists as an interesting new destination in Europe", Croatia's Prime Minister, Andrej Plenković, said just prior to the pandemic. Despite growing demand, Croatia Airlines currently has no codeshare agreement in place with any Chinese carrier, nor does it have a codeshare partnership with other airlines on flights to China. Beijing Capital Airlines, a subsidiary of Hainan Airlines, was to introduce services between Beijing and the Croatian capital over the 2017 summer season, however, the planned operations were later cancelled. Initially, the carrier filed for a permit for a two weekly service with an Airbus A330-200 aircraft.