Flights between Zagreb and other capital cities in the former Yugoslavia saw an improvement during the first three quarters of the year when compared to last, however, demand is still below prepandemic levels on select routes. Belgrade, which last year overtook Skopje to become the busiest EX-YU route from Zagreb after six years, retained its position between January and September. Air Serba, as the sole operator, handled 47.427 passengers, representing an increase of 13.1% on the same period last year. Figures on the route have overtaken their pre-Covid levels, with the carrier welcoming 35.969 travellers during the same interval in 2019. The average cabin load factor stood at 61.1%.
Croatia Airlines, as the only operator on the Zagreb - Skopje service, welcomed 45.114 passengers on board its aircraft. The airline maintained a total of 780 flights between the two cities, registering an average cabin load factor of 54.5% during the nine-month period. The carrier’s figures on the route mark a slight increase on its performance last year, growing 0.6%. However, passenger numbers are still 20.2% below 2019 levels. Last year, Croatia Airlines inaugurated a seasonal service between Split and Skopje, which was also maintained this summer between May and October.
Croatia Airlines handled 42.437 passengers between Zagreb and Sarajevo. Over the Q1 - Q3 period, it performed a total of 999 flights on the route. Its average cabin load factor over the nine months stood at 54.9%. While the number of travellers improved 9% on last year, the route is some way off from recovering its pre-Covid passenger figures. In 2019, the Croatian carrier handled 49.565 travellers between the two capitals. The only other capital from the former Yugoslavia served out of Zagreb this year was Podgorica on a seasonal summer basis, however, the Ryanair-operated route is no longer scheduled to be restored in 2025. Over the first three quarters, the budget airline handled 28.147 passengers between the two cities, with an average cabin load factor of 85.9%.
Why are Croatia Airlines' numbers so below 2019??
ReplyDeleteSkopje lost a share now that Wizz flies to Ljubljana, Sarajevo relied on transfers which are less needed now due to SJJ's far bigger network than in 2019
DeletePoor management, strategy, sales and the belief the A220 will magically solve all the company's internal issues.
DeleteI also think OU is the biggest loser from LH flights to SKP (I thought it would be LOT or OS)
DeleteEh, the numbers are growing, it's not that bad. The LF is the issue, but that's what happens when you have 1000 flights per year between 2 medium-sized cities
DeleteA220 is most efficient single isle airplane. It will solve all the problems of the frequencies, passenger numbers and ZAG as main hub.
DeleteIsn't that why BT is struggling? lol
DeleteNo
Delete"Eh, the numbers are growing, it's not that bad."
DeleteThe airline has by the end of third quarter:
- loss of over 9 million euros
- one of lowest load factors in Europe among legacy carriers
- 20% below 2019 passenger numbers in the year 2024.
Other than transfers the highway network in B&H improved, leading to Zagreb being reachable in 4.5 hours by car instead of 6
DeleteAny chance ZAG-PRN will ever come back?
ReplyDeleteCome back? Were the cities before connected?
DeleteOU flew
DeleteBEG and SKP are close. Will be interesting to see if SKP can return to top.
ReplyDeletethe difference in H2 was bigger https://www.exyuaviation.com/2024/09/ryanair-routes-see-strong-zagreb-growth.html
DeleteCant believe how the Skopje Ljubljana flights didnt have any impact on the Skopje Zagreb numbers...
ReplyDeleteWell numbers are 20% below 2019. Had the Wizz flights not launched, perhaps the numbers would be better.
DeletePlus they only grew by 0.6% which isn't much. I think Wizz launched LJU in May? That's mid-Q2. Would be interesting to see ZAG-SKP numbers after that period.
DeleteWizz launched SKP-LJU in September.
DeleteSeptember 2024? My bad, then it's still too early to judge if they had any impact on ZAG-SKP flights. However growth of 0.6% should be a good indicator of this.
DeleteSeptember 2023
DeleteThank you. Then we know why growth wasn't as high as it was to SJJ.
DeleteNemjee ??
DeleteYees?
Deletebtw how was Split-Skopje preforming this year & last year?
ReplyDeleteIf ZAG-TGD is indeed suspended then it will be very good news for Air Serbia and should further boost their performance in ZAG.
ReplyDeleteA 61% load-factor might not seem ideal but we should keep in mind that this is a short flight, operated by the extremely efficient ATR. Overall, it seems like Air Serbia is nicely positioning itself as a valid travel option for those heading to/from Zagreb.
As for Croatia Airlines, given their worsening financial performance, it makes you wonder how much longer they can keep on going like this. I fear they passed the point of no return and they have fallen off of the deep end. No amount of money can help them now especially with Ryanair becoming increasingly aggressive in Zagreb.
I see this as a slow suffocation of OU by FR. Croatia Airlines' worsening financial results are best proof of it. Croatia isn't exactly flush with cash so it will become increasingly difficult for the government to fund this business.
If (or when) OU does go bankrupt, what will this mean for ZAG's regional connectivity? Will they suffer the same fate as LJU post-JP? ZAG already tried to reconnect itself with TGD via FR and it seems like it failed. SKP tried to link itself with SJJ via A3 and they failed.
What will happen with OMO, SKP and SJJ flights in that situation? Who will or will anyone step in?
Only LJU-SKP is doing well and it seems like distance between the two is what makes this route a success.
BEG has a phenomenal regional connectivity but only because it has a national carrier which has the right plane for this market. Like I already wrote before, if our region was normal (which it isn't), these airports would work with JU to link them. Like this intra-Ex YU connectivity will only get worse as legacy carriers fade away. Slovenia and Adria are a good proof of this.
ATR’s break even is 50%
DeleteWe can't know what a breakeven number is without first seeing the breakdown of actual costs for this route. On some routes it might be 10% while on some other it might be 80%. It all depends what the fare structure is like compared to the costs.
DeleteOn routes which are more dependent on transfers then the breakeven mark will be higher. On some others where we have more point to point passengers it will be lower.
ATR flies to both TGD and KRK. Do you think the breakeven mark is the same for both?
I flew this route few times. Few years ago the price was the half of the price today. Load factor is not that high, but with prices that doubled I think they could do fine.
DeleteI know some people who flew BEG-ZAG-BEG the last 10 days and one flight had over 60 passengers while the one back had 56. Overall not bad for this time of the year.
DeleteAir Serbia's schedule to ZAG has remained more or less stable over the years. It helped in consolidating their position over time.
Probably Wizz BEG-LJU would be also a success despite a proximity.
DeleteOU not going anywhere anytime soon. If they do crap themselves, if wont be for at least another 5 years but I'm prettu sure they will be here for a while still.
DeleteDespite their heavy losses, they still have some 80 million euros in the bank and I am sure the Cro gov will figure out a way to get them more cash and probably soon. How the EU reacts, we will see, but as long as Cro continues to toe the line, they (EU) will likely do nothing.
In saying that, it actually means we will continue to see the same from OU. I will love to see them launch all these new services they have mentioned so far next year but I bet they only launch another 3 which will be 2 or 3 weekly somewhere for the summer and that's it.
They really need to do something ambitious and daring but they wont. They will continue to just plot along.
Anon 11.52
DeleteAbsolutely, especially if they put flights on Fridays and Sundays.
Anon 12.35
They said the exact same thing for Cyprus Airways and Malev and eventually both were shut down. I am sure the Croatian government will do their best to protect OU but given their utter incompetence their situation will only go from bad to worse. As time goes by and as Ryanair puts more and more pressure on them, their situation will only deteriorate. They are actually helping Ryanair by introducing the A220. It's a plane they don't need.
Passengers in the Balkans don't care about such things. They want to travel for as little as possible. That is why JU opted to cancel their A320neo deal and to base its growth on cheaper, second hand planes.
Croatia Airlines should have gone the same road. They should have leased a bunch of older A319s and A320s and focused on fighting off Ryanair.
In stead they introduced an extremely expensive plane (with many faults) and are planning on retiring their Q400s. I personally don't know why they are doing it since they were not a problem for them. I did not read anywhere that they were unreliable for OU. They should have based their future on a mix of Q400s and A320s.
It really begs the question if retiring the ATR was the right thing to do.
What about JU going bust? Is that also realistic?
DeleteNot really and no need to be triggered. The airline's annual revenue is over half a billion euros and it is profitable. Have a look at their financial report for 2023. You can also see how much they reduced their costs since 2019 while significantly growing their network. Unlike beloved OU.
DeleteYour comment is just bunch of crap as usual. No one buys new gen aircraft because passengers want it but because of efficiency.
DeleteAir Serbia might be autistic at times and they tend to have epic fails but their core business model is healthy. On the other hand, OU doesn't even seem to have a business model, they are just living from day to the next.
DeleteAnon 18.11
Efficiency is one thing, affording it is another. What's the point of having a shiny new plane if it creates more problems than solutions? This is the case with OU. They are nowhere near close to affording a plane such as the A220.
1. No one likes OU
Delete2. JU is going bust in few years and probably sooner then OU
Maybe if you were reading something else than Analiza Alena Scurica you would now how terrible JU strategy is. And maybe if you were reading news from outside Balkas you wouldn't be writing crap like "Efficiency is one thing, affording it is another. What's the point of having a shiny new plane if it creates more problems than solutions?".
DeleteJUs model is so healthy they are spending proportionally more money then OU. Really impressive.
DeleteIm interested were will be 3 other A330 flying considering there is barely demand for one in the winter.
So your whole defence of OU is "look JU is bad in my books". I would channel that energy in trying to replace the management at OU which has been doing an appalling job and holding your government responsible for posting incompetent party affiliated people to run the airline. And all this is in the EU no less.
Delete"JUs model is so healthy they are spending proportionally more money then OU. Really impressive."
DeleteIn which financial report did you see this? I see JU in profit with 560 MILLION euros in revenue and average cabin load factor of 79% in 2023 (all available in their annual report). Now read OU's annual results.
Let him be. He doesn't understand the way in which civil aviation works. Time will tell who is right. However looking at the overall situation at OU I think we are going to be right.
DeleteLike I said, JU might not be perfect but they have a system that works for them.
Yeah, and Malev also had a system that worked.
DeleteAnd no Nemjee, you are not going to be right because you and your beloved Alen were never right.
Actually no, Malev didn't have a system that worked because unlike JU they were not profitable and they never repaid a government loan. JU is both profitable and it repaid the government covid loan.
DeleteIt's funny you mentioned MA because their real troubles started when they made the switch from B733/734 to 737NG. Many said Varadi's decision made no sense as the older planes were still good and were much cheaper to operate.
Much higher leases strained their finances which made it even more difficult to save the airline.
Varadi went on to establish Wizz Air while Malev was left to deal with his poor and unrealistic business decisions. Do you see any similarities between MA and OU or do I need to pain you a picture?
Same thing happened with Cyprus Airways which replaced their ageing A310s with a much bigger and heavier A330. But sure, OU knows something we don't and these A220s will save them. I guess their finances should considerably improve by the end of the year.
When will JU repay all money it received from government?
DeleteYes, unlike OU it is repaying
Deletehttps://www.exyuaviation.com/2023/08/air-serbia-posts-record-profit-and.html
Those load facrors are a disaster. Good lick to OU and their single aircraft short term strategy.
ReplyDeleteI clearly cannot type this morning
DeleteThe result of OU is shocking. It is clear without a stronger European network for transfers, their regional routes will be unprofitable, as there is no demand for enough P2P routes to fill those planes.
Delete"good lick to OU"
Delete🤣🤣🤣
This made my day. Thank you. Have a nice weekend.
DeleteWas this the police officer from Alo Alo?
DeleteAny info how is Skopje-Split doing ?
ReplyDeleteIts also good to mentioned that most of the OU flights to SKP in most of the yead are operated by A220 and A319 , only now in December we see Dash 8 flights :))
ReplyDeleteImagine the load factor when the A220 takes over the Sarajevo route…
ReplyDeleteThey said they will wet lease turboprops and specifically mentioned Sarajevo as a destination where it will be used.
Delete10:26 do u really write this that A220 will be used in SJJ ? Are u okay buddy ? :) SJJ will be used by turboprops , because of the distance. A220 in September, Octomber and part of November was used in SKP the only airport in Ex-Yu that see that plane
DeleteWill be interesting to see what they do with turboprops. Will they dry lease them or will be the same as OS. I fear if they go with a wet lease it might strain their finances even more. I don't understand why don't they keep the Q400s. I am sure if they renegotiated the lease terms they could get them even cheaper. It's not like airlines are rushing to get them ... as is the case with the ATR.
DeleteImagine wet leasing turboprops to operate a route with 60% LF and below pre covid levels. Redicilous.
DeleteQ400 are too old to be kept.
DeleteAre spare parts becoming an issue for OU's Q400s? I don't see what other reason there might be.
DeleteIt would only make sense for them to plan on reintroducing the Atr into their fleet. However they should do it through a dry lease agreement, wet lease ones tend to be too expensive.
What also tends to be expensive is getting another type of airplane in fleet.
DeleteWet lease is expensive? Say that to your beloved JU.
I said that to my beloved Air Serbia and that is why they removed all wet leases from the ATR fleet. They said in the next year or two they will remove them from the rest of the fleet. Baby steps my friend.
DeleteBut you are right, just imagine how much higher their profits would have been if they didn't have them!
Is the Skopje route mostly used by transfers or point to point passengers?
ReplyDeleteMostly transfers but there is also point to point business people and people who works in Croatia seasonal ...
DeleteZagreb airport is beautiful.
ReplyDeleteHow is that related to anything in this article?
DeleteNobody knows.
DeleteIt is related because I comment how beautiful and cosy is the airport.
DeleteOh well at least in Q3 OU's SKP route was the busiest exyu route from ZAG, if that matters :)
ReplyDeleteJust curious who are mostly the passengers on beg to zag route?...point to point or transfer? Ratio?
ReplyDeleteFrom what I know most passengers are transfers. They are going everywhere, from the region to Western Europe to China. It's a shame the last time night flights were tried there were like 20 passengers per flight. Maybe they should try them in summer.
DeleteBEG is not a big airport so it's quite easy connect. I am sure that's one of the selling points. For example last summer Lufthansa was forced to increase minimum connecting times from 45 minute to 60. That said, I think 60 minutes is also not enough but better than 45.
Skopje and Sarajevo with less flights than Belgrade, have just 2-5 thousands pax less than Belgrade?
ReplyDeleteSo much about that...
You realize there is more capacity on both SKP and SJJ route than to BEG yet there are more passengers on the BEG route. So much about that....
DeleteSJJ and BEG have similiar capacity. SJJ gets A320 time to time, but BEG had that frequency increase for short time.
DeleteSo yes, 5k pax isn't that big difference...
So? It means that more passengers fly BEG-ZAG than SJJ-ZAG and that one grew 31% on 2019 while the other declined 14%. Somehow that's a win for SJJ-ZAG route and OU?
DeleteWait... who had the frequency increase for a short time? BEG-SJJ?
Delete