PREMIUM
Three years since the high-profile launch of Emirates’ service between Dubai and Zagreb, the carrier has withdrawn from the Croatian market, closed its representative office and dismissed local staff. Although the coronavirus pandemic brought the flights to an abrupt end, Emirates has confirmed it will not be resuming the route next year. However, even prior to the covid crisis, Emirates had downsized its capacity to the Croatian capital, turning its year-round service to seasonal summer flights.
Data shows that Qatar Airways, which had been present on the Croatian market five years prior to Emirates’ entry, was never greatly affected by the arrival of its better-known Gulf rival, despite vying for the same category of passengers. Qatar Airways has served Zagreb since May 2012, initially linking it to and from Doha via Budapest. It introduced non-stop flights in October 2014 and continues to maintain operations to the Croatian capital. On the other hand, Emirates has shared its route with partner Flydubai by operating flights during the summer, while its hybrid counterpart maintained operations in the winter.
In 2019, Qatar Airways handled 147.073 passengers between Doha and Zagreb on 1.450 flights (return service included) and offered 204.784 on the market throughout the year. It registered an average annual cabin load factor of 71.8%. The majority of its flights, almost 90%, were operated by the two-class Airbus A320 aircraft. Qatar Airways' Zagreb route has devloped quickly over the past five years, despite a passenger decline in 2018, heavily influenced by the trade embargo and blockade of Doha, impacting on the airline's transfer offer to destinations in the Middle East.
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67.924 | 107.263 | 127.218 | 121.541 | 148.073 |
During 2019, Emirates operated flights for seven months of the year and Flydubai for the remaining five, with the two handling 130.937 passengers, despite offering almost the same capacity as their Doha-based rival.
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| 98.301 | 147.157 | 130.937 |
Qatar Airways and Emirates both connect far-flung cities via a Middle East hub. But to achieve that goal, they’ve taken different strategies, which was apparent in Zagreb as well. Emirates built itself around large aircraft that were difficult to fill on thinner routes in the winter, as was the case in the Croatian capital, and will be even more difficult to fill in the sluggish years ahead. Qatar favoured short and medium-sized jets that can be viable with fewer passengers. A mediocre Emirates loading would be solid on Qatar’s lighter fleet. Emirates belatedly realised it needs smaller widebodies. But its A350s and 787s won’t arrive until 2023.
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| Qatar Airways aircraft type utilisation to Zagreb, 2019 |
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| Emirates and Flydubai aircraft type utilisation to Zagreb, 2019 |
Flydubai will replace Emirates next year in Zagreb. The economics of the 737 to be used on the route will be beneficial, however, it will still face stiff competition from Qatar. Larger local business demand, regional hub status and more tourism will continue to play into Flydubai’s favour but brand discrepancies for transfer passengers, a mixed low cost and full fare model and older airport spread across multiple terminals in Dubai compared to Doha’s modern single-building terminal with fast connections, may still prove a tough competitor.